{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e20650d3-a533-4574-9525-25c37c9cca25", "symbol": "688665", "name": "Cubic Sensor and Instrument Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 65.098, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -23.719, "architecture_energy": 39.468, "architecture_maturity": 50.167, "architecture_confidence": 64.848, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.05, "rotation_up": 14.04, "upward_expansion": 17.51, "deceleration": 71.06, "rotation_down": 67.25, "downward_expansion": 42.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 44.879333, 49.535045, 50.8864, 50.518854 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 46.549999, "trend_reference": 50.510577, "distance_from_trend": -0.078411, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 43.14199, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.078995, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.008842, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.103601, "excess_performance": -0.060397, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.078411, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020265, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.078995, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105384, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.110088, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039347, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.103601, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.670259, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2429505, "relative_activity": 0.60126, "balance": 0.670259, "dry_up": 0.939033, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.127795, "annualized_volatility": 0.514848, "from_high_reference": -0.357222, "from_low_reference": 0.197274 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 50.510577, "fair_value_reference": 43.14199, "structural_low": 38.880001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.080995, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.057059, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.259535, "worst_return": -0.187096, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.206901, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.167909, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.411423, "worst_return": -0.246344, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.148196, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.065984, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.373565, "worst_return": -0.198084, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.014964, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.039339, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.043879, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041691, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.136337, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-15", 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54.816569, 52.766314, 51.856858 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 42.400002, "volume": 4857631, "typical_volume": 4058610.25, "trend": 50.816577, "fair_value": 43.30796, "relative_strength": -17.210715, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.867726, "energy": 28.638174, "activity_lines": [ 49.045334, 52.607893, 51.966422, 51.302154 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 42.709999, "volume": 2327512, "typical_volume": 4035020.45, "trend": 50.584577, "fair_value": 43.204234, "relative_strength": -16.529151, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.407604, "energy": 41.089745, "activity_lines": [ 45.615333, 50.620643, 51.230911, 50.779149 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 46.549999, "volume": 2429505, "typical_volume": 4040689.8, "trend": 50.510577, "fair_value": 43.14199, "relative_strength": -11.008842, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.719069, "energy": 39.468162, "activity_lines": [ 44.879333, 49.535045, 50.8864, 50.518854 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }