{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e2067f16-8341-45a8-8eef-168ddf3d0460", "symbol": "200541", "name": "Foshan Electrical and Lighting Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.556, "architecture_energy": 39.337, "architecture_maturity": 60.943, "architecture_confidence": 84.511, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.65, "rotation_up": 25.92, "upward_expansion": 5.31, "deceleration": 57.08, "rotation_down": 41.66, "downward_expansion": 73.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.904, 1.90858, 1.923231, 1.969393 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.91, "trend_reference": 2.035764, "distance_from_trend": -0.061777, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.153653, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.113135, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.867257, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.131818, "excess_performance": -0.139218, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.061777, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039873, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.113135, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033231, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.138673, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.143035, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.131818, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.631823, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 361932, "relative_activity": 0.417436, "balance": 0.631823, "dry_up": 0.802638, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035166, "annualized_volatility": 0.153357, "from_high_reference": -0.236, "from_low_reference": 0.040941 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.035764, "fair_value_reference": 2.153653, "structural_low": 1.834879, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.441176, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": 0.003232, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.094488, "worst_return": -0.081712, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.023042, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.01226, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.235813, "worst_return": -0.176678, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.040816, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.02865, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.198217, "worst_return": -0.223333, "sufficient": true }, { 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.044177, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.060606, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.032922, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": 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"volume": 1511046, "typical_volume": 988999.15, "trend": 2.066431, "fair_value": 2.157665, "relative_strength": -20.537681, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.771471, "energy": 30.336716, "activity_lines": [ 1.92988, 1.915108, 1.959715, 2.010041 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.88, "volume": 617208, "typical_volume": 970233.7, "trend": 2.058764, "fair_value": 2.156875, "relative_strength": -14.109176, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.843027, "energy": 35.516293, "activity_lines": [ 1.917901, 1.908529, 1.946844, 1.998014 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.88, "volume": 834938, "typical_volume": 897201.65, "trend": 2.051097, "fair_value": 2.155614, "relative_strength": -13.664587, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.40156, "energy": 34.591797, "activity_lines": [ 1.904209, 1.903954, 1.935306, 1.98648 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.92, "volume": 969590, "typical_volume": 891166.45, "trend": 2.043764, "fair_value": 2.154608, "relative_strength": -9.719864, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.026819, "energy": 39.354121, "activity_lines": [ 1.906667, 1.907244, 1.929102, 1.978023 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.91, "volume": 361932, "typical_volume": 867036.7, "trend": 2.035764, "fair_value": 2.153653, "relative_strength": -13.867257, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.555895, "energy": 39.337224, "activity_lines": [ 1.904, 1.90858, 1.923231, 1.969393 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }