{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e20cc625-9b4f-4d46-825d-4ff79682c32b", "symbol": "SCM", "name": "Successmore Being Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 91.405, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -22.444, "architecture_energy": 9.215, "architecture_maturity": 17.87, "architecture_confidence": 65.081, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.67, "rotation_up": 21.23, "upward_expansion": 21.57, "deceleration": 59.17, "rotation_down": 38.04, "downward_expansion": 54.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.122, 0.122, 0.121667, 0.122925 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.12, "trend_reference": 0.126, "distance_from_trend": -0.047619, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.874159, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.935971, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -36.735311, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.142857, "excess_performance": -0.335182, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.047619, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057357, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.935971, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011087, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.367353, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.178951, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.142857, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.907165, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1363300, "relative_activity": 0.379931, "balance": 0.907165, "dry_up": 0.448725, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.141026, "annualized_volatility": 0.420394, "from_high_reference": -0.72093, "from_low_reference": 0.2 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.126, "fair_value_reference": 1.874159, "structural_low": 0.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.047059, "positive_rate": 0.153846, "directional_follow_through": 0.153846, "median_excess_return": -0.059711, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.053243, "worst_return": -0.751337, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.203987, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.134713, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": -0.020831, "worst_return": -0.809524, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.46762, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.502151, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.068816, "worst_return": -0.813492, "sufficient": false }, { 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"regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-06-23", "end": "2023-09-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.115406, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-09-22", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.077273, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-04-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.040505, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.032609, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.139535, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": 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0.123091, 0.122381, 0.124344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.12, "volume": 2203600, "typical_volume": 3813360.0, "trend": 0.127333, "fair_value": 1.934079, "relative_strength": -42.615518, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.051965, "energy": 11.891575, "activity_lines": [ 0.124667, 0.122727, 0.122095, 0.123828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.12, "volume": 777600, "typical_volume": 3708325.0, "trend": 0.126667, "fair_value": 1.904304, "relative_strength": -39.567977, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.888059, "energy": 10.989412, "activity_lines": [ 0.123333, 0.122364, 0.121857, 0.123355 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.12, "volume": 1363300, "typical_volume": 3588280.0, "trend": 0.126, "fair_value": 1.874159, "relative_strength": -36.735311, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.444066, "energy": 9.214616, "activity_lines": [ 0.122, 0.122, 0.121667, 0.122925 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }