{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e20d3a72-f4f5-4ae0-bb76-a23402ce5d79", "symbol": "4303", "name": "HsinLi Chemical Industrial Corp.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.812, "architecture_energy": 39.82, "architecture_maturity": 95.62, "architecture_confidence": 84.702, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.17, "rotation_up": 26.05, "upward_expansion": 5.31, "deceleration": 59.61, "rotation_down": 47.12, "downward_expansion": 78.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 44.56, 44.695454, 46.254761, 48.30215 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 47.150002, "trend_reference": 51.156666, "distance_from_trend": -0.078321, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 45.453946, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.037314, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -44.797304, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.166961, "excess_performance": -0.608333, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.078321, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.113403, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.037314, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058929, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.447973, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064093, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.166961, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.197395, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3496833, "relative_activity": 1.140404, "balance": 1.197395, "dry_up": 0.763116, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081573, "annualized_volatility": 0.341613, "from_high_reference": -0.435329, "from_low_reference": 0.198221 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 51.156666, "fair_value_reference": 45.453946, "structural_low": 39.349998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.031101, "positive_rate": 0.263158, "directional_follow_through": 0.736842, "median_excess_return": -0.057585, "regime_survival": 0.894737, "best_return": 0.17, "worst_return": -0.135841, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.1, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.085671, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.482759, "worst_return": -0.223853, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.050175, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.148264, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.390595, "worst_return": -0.311075, "sufficient": false }, 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"relative_strength": -50.39837, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.038457, "energy": 67.492111, "activity_lines": [ 42.993332, 44.41909, 46.790237, 49.049784 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 45.049999, "volume": 1855005, "typical_volume": 3089541.55, "trend": 51.631666, "fair_value": 45.244699, "relative_strength": -46.338213, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.556306, "energy": 51.179212, "activity_lines": [ 43.333332, 44.34909, 46.395952, 48.59129 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 47.150002, "volume": 3496833, "typical_volume": 3066310.7, "trend": 51.156666, "fair_value": 45.453946, "relative_strength": -44.797304, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.812333, "energy": 39.820231, "activity_lines": [ 44.56, 44.695454, 46.254761, 48.30215 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }