{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e20f193b-7842-46df-b12a-a08277376cff", "symbol": "RCI-A", "name": "Rogers Communications Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 72.287, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.212, "architecture_energy": 31.167, "architecture_maturity": 17.603, "architecture_confidence": 81.965, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.08, "rotation_up": 17.91, "upward_expansion": 3.25, "deceleration": 55.06, "rotation_down": 48.63, "downward_expansion": 74.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 48.91, 49.211334, 49.941687, 50.389519 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 49.09, "trend_reference": 50.861156, "distance_from_trend": -0.034823, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 49.826288, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.014777, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.793303, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.011213, "excess_performance": -0.131634, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.034823, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010757, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.014777, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023052, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.147933, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061835, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.011213, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.384615, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5800, "relative_activity": 0.763158, "balance": 2.384615, "dry_up": 1.141447, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050534, "annualized_volatility": 0.285774, "from_high_reference": -0.126618, "from_low_reference": 0.087005 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 50.861156, "fair_value_reference": 49.826288, "structural_low": 45.160797, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.015385, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.005013, "regime_survival": 0.76, "best_return": 0.166042, "worst_return": -0.118644, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.020922, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.048369, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.330694, "worst_return": -0.163286, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.057601, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.022294, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.16454, "worst_return": -0.053353, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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28.35257, "activity_lines": [ 52.521, 52.068085, 51.441582, 51.461118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 46.240002, "volume": 1500, "typical_volume": 6990.0, "trend": 51.190578, "fair_value": 49.995862, "relative_strength": -18.924714, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.34073, "energy": 30.559143, "activity_lines": [ 50.228223, 51.120703, 50.920751, 51.130883 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 47.880001, "volume": 12900, "typical_volume": 7370.0, "trend": 51.134992, "fair_value": 49.956211, "relative_strength": -15.808948, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.873263, "energy": 50.320173, "activity_lines": [ 48.988668, 50.528066, 50.58814, 50.917297 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 49.5, "volume": 7800, "typical_volume": 7020.0, "trend": 51.100374, "fair_value": 49.918627, "relative_strength": -12.521611, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.958303, "energy": 53.419302, "activity_lines": [ 48.721334, 50.261403, 50.433753, 50.811814 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 48.439999, "volume": 11300, "typical_volume": 7120.0, "trend": 51.04925, "fair_value": 49.876213, "relative_strength": -14.234838, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.569393, "energy": 65.535152, "activity_lines": [ 48.440667, 49.822356, 50.203414, 50.640177 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 49.0, "volume": 9800, "typical_volume": 7490.0, "trend": 50.925956, "fair_value": 49.852406, "relative_strength": -12.514681, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.612602, "energy": 53.675698, "activity_lines": [ 48.617333, 49.497727, 50.056503, 50.507967 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 49.09, "volume": 5800, "typical_volume": 7600.0, "trend": 50.861156, "fair_value": 49.826288, "relative_strength": -14.793303, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.211807, "energy": 31.167374, "activity_lines": [ 48.91, 49.211334, 49.941687, 50.389519 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }