{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e20f590d-32ba-488e-a05b-fda6941b6efa", "symbol": "SPXC", "name": "SPX Corp", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 93.275, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 20.198, "architecture_energy": 13.991, "architecture_maturity": 20.085, "architecture_confidence": 73.209, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.23, "rotation_up": 20.23, "upward_expansion": 50.05, "deceleration": 90.9, "rotation_down": 34.09, "downward_expansion": 20.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 217.361333, 221.422909, 220.077667, 217.939269 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 215.68, "trend_reference": 216.73, "distance_from_trend": -0.004845, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 158.018269, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.364905, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.133304, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.029867, "excess_performance": -0.155492, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.004845, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022554, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.364905, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020633, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.081333, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002629, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.029867, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.637826, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2181614, "relative_activity": 0.675188, "balance": 0.637826, "dry_up": 0.867914, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.097518, "annualized_volatility": 0.347689, "from_high_reference": -0.140991, "from_low_reference": 0.200757 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 216.73, "fair_value_reference": 158.018269, "structural_low": 182.985, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.017754, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.005271, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.188802, "worst_return": -0.163371, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.055206, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.015958, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.226299, "worst_return": -0.17545, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.075723, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.104531, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.492824, "worst_return": -0.100316, 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"regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.09902, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.085419, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.201642, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.08449, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.146393, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.229147, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.1141, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.167395, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.051753, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018656, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 78.25, "volume": 1142377, "typical_volume": 1172406.7, "trend": 75.387, "fair_value": 60.337244, "relative_strength": 2.700368, "stage": 2, "regime": 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"activity_lines": [ 219.615333, 223.821818, 219.615048, 217.750237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 219.62, "volume": 3776007, "typical_volume": 3248739.15, "trend": 216.457667, "fair_value": 157.140192, "relative_strength": -3.420838, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.82792, "energy": 15.902525, "activity_lines": [ 218.736667, 223.088, 220.082, 217.989441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 215.68, "volume": 2181614, "typical_volume": 3231122.85, "trend": 216.73, "fair_value": 158.018269, "relative_strength": -8.133304, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.198481, "energy": 13.99115, "activity_lines": [ 217.361333, 221.422909, 220.077667, 217.939269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }