{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e20fe651-dd18-442e-aa9c-c89edf975bd1", "symbol": "6616", "name": "Techcential International Ltd", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.129, "architecture_energy": 46.459, "architecture_maturity": 26.664, "architecture_confidence": 91.055, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.72, "rotation_up": 19.12, "upward_expansion": 6.31, "deceleration": 47.98, "rotation_down": 60.18, "downward_expansion": 81.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.815333, 8.926727, 9.210143, 9.437677 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 8.68, "trend_reference": 9.713667, "distance_from_trend": -0.106414, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.745007, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.260963, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.315499, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.144828, "excess_performance": -0.5862, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.106414, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020141, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.260963, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058121, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.373155, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019004, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.144828, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.798162, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 54000, "relative_activity": 0.243168, "balance": 0.798162, "dry_up": 0.437067, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069213, "annualized_volatility": 0.209408, "from_high_reference": -0.235242, "from_low_reference": 0.017585 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.713667, "fair_value_reference": 11.745007, "structural_low": 8.53, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.013699, "positive_rate": 0.457143, "directional_follow_through": 0.542857, "median_excess_return": -0.0143, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.096899, "worst_return": -0.122807, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.019901, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.053878, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.228682, "worst_return": -0.179191, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.090815, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.124722, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.25969, "worst_return": -0.187861, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.049296, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.080645, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.130435, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.060302, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.019048, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-09-12", 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9.317273, 9.585714, 9.744 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.03, "volume": 130030, "typical_volume": 254708.85, "trend": 9.855, "fair_value": 11.863141, "relative_strength": -33.562114, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.000985, "energy": 63.59451, "activity_lines": [ 9.052667, 9.236364, 9.511238, 9.689613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.95, "volume": 77000, "typical_volume": 249408.3, "trend": 9.828333, "fair_value": 11.835089, "relative_strength": -34.818753, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.914281, "energy": 56.684174, "activity_lines": [ 8.997333, 9.158545, 9.437095, 9.631226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.02, "volume": 75159, "typical_volume": 243516.2, "trend": 9.807333, "fair_value": 11.808557, "relative_strength": -32.658032, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.981245, "energy": 42.490286, "activity_lines": [ 9.004, 9.106182, 9.375571, 9.579075 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.71, "volume": 182076, "typical_volume": 230169.5, "trend": 9.774333, "fair_value": 11.776246, "relative_strength": -35.752837, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.088692, "energy": 45.493767, "activity_lines": [ 8.901333, 9.014182, 9.291095, 9.50828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 8.68, "volume": 54000, "typical_volume": 222068.25, "trend": 9.713667, "fair_value": 11.745007, "relative_strength": -37.315499, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.128885, "energy": 46.459033, "activity_lines": [ 8.815333, 8.926727, 9.210143, 9.437677 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }