{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e2154096-ed09-4659-b411-12659a56a893", "symbol": "TREEHOUSE", "name": "Tree House Education & Accessories Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.021, "architecture_energy": 55.651, "architecture_maturity": 33.392, "architecture_confidence": 94.952, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.22, "rotation_up": 19.25, "upward_expansion": 9.73, "deceleration": 45.34, "rotation_down": 62.47, "downward_expansion": 85.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.312, 6.467091, 6.819905, 7.170323 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 6.3, "trend_reference": 7.531333, "distance_from_trend": -0.163495, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.578782, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.567865, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.216687, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.180754, "excess_performance": -0.137045, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.163495, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060697, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.567865, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.091577, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.172167, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.22734, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.180754, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.337969, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 48451, "relative_activity": 0.607855, "balance": 0.337969, "dry_up": 1.690651, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.101465, "annualized_volatility": 0.483656, "from_high_reference": -0.427273, "from_low_reference": 0.141304 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.531333, "fair_value_reference": 14.578782, "structural_low": 5.52, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.028898, "positive_rate": 0.45, "directional_follow_through": 0.55, "median_excess_return": -0.024478, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.527473, "worst_return": -0.200322, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.040994, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.002648, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.672515, "worst_return": -0.479745, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.08982, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.016297, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 1.335165, "worst_return": -0.539211, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.12297, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.173594, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.070285, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.142422, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.249411, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.589954, "active": false }, { 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45.466883, "activity_lines": [ 6.860667, 6.952364, 7.399762, 7.620172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 6.53, "volume": 123589, "typical_volume": 129328.75, "trend": 7.788667, "fair_value": 14.839103, "relative_strength": -13.337395, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.177343, "energy": 53.567566, "activity_lines": [ 6.750667, 6.838364, 7.27881, 7.534667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.08, "volume": 259436, "typical_volume": 96152.3, "trend": 7.709667, "fair_value": 14.770064, "relative_strength": -19.510619, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.805491, "energy": 68.302571, "activity_lines": [ 6.507333, 6.669455, 7.125381, 7.42443 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.35, "volume": 165390, "typical_volume": 94868.85, "trend": 7.649333, "fair_value": 14.706923, "relative_strength": -13.874576, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.42961, "energy": 54.74492, "activity_lines": [ 6.412667, 6.586182, 7.015571, 7.33671 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.36, "volume": 65758, "typical_volume": 90983.05, "trend": 7.589667, "fair_value": 14.641603, "relative_strength": -15.86505, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.059443, "energy": 58.818815, "activity_lines": [ 6.364667, 6.527273, 6.916429, 7.253527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.3, "volume": 48451, "typical_volume": 79708.2, "trend": 7.531333, "fair_value": 14.578782, "relative_strength": -17.216687, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.020641, "energy": 55.650604, "activity_lines": [ 6.312, 6.467091, 6.819905, 7.170323 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }