{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e215f2cc-63fc-4634-912c-b72383191955", "symbol": "VGZ", "name": "Vista Gold Corp.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 79.441, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.768, "architecture_energy": 52.54, "architecture_maturity": 9.442, "architecture_confidence": 83.643, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.67, "rotation_up": 14.45, "upward_expansion": 12.74, "deceleration": 37.76, "rotation_down": 63.4, "downward_expansion": 83.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.574667, 2.660364, 2.816095, 2.884323 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.96, "trend_reference": 3.014333, "distance_from_trend": -0.018025, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.495833, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.97883, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.971897, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.094801, "excess_performance": -0.215222, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.018025, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009714, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.97883, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.34409, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.059719, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.194578, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.094801, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.070862, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 218400, "relative_activity": 1.068833, "balance": 1.070862, "dry_up": 0.822669, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.126299, "annualized_volatility": 0.727508, "from_high_reference": -0.303529, "from_low_reference": 1.160584 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.014333, "fair_value_reference": 1.495833, "structural_low": 2.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.013007, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.012317, "regime_survival": 0.85, "best_return": 0.414634, "worst_return": -0.163265, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.014583, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.075093, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.147368, "worst_return": -0.294118, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.0375, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.042588, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.09, "worst_return": -0.279412, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.155556, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.247706, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.293233, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.490446, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.451754, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.146758, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.136, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.111913, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.193443, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.357798, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.64, "volume": 16500, "typical_volume": 23955.0, "trend": 0.755667, "fair_value": 1.021731, "relative_strength": -14.253209, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", 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"fair_value": 1.469808, "relative_strength": -19.348673, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.802562, "energy": 74.237905, "activity_lines": [ 2.460667, 2.718182, 2.846619, 2.925828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.42, "volume": 187200, "typical_volume": 255500.0, "trend": 3.010667, "fair_value": 1.48109, "relative_strength": -20.068296, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.49606, "energy": 75.576799, "activity_lines": [ 2.411333, 2.634182, 2.804762, 2.887591 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.96, "volume": 218400, "typical_volume": 204335.0, "trend": 3.014333, "fair_value": 1.495833, "relative_strength": -5.971897, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.76809, "energy": 52.540491, "activity_lines": [ 2.574667, 2.660364, 2.816095, 2.884323 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }