{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e219576c-8a10-4800-9b9c-1164a052e6c7", "symbol": "N1GG34", "name": "National Grid plc", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 58.287, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.539, "architecture_energy": 49.503, "architecture_maturity": 5.653, "architecture_confidence": 83.083, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.02, "rotation_up": 19.06, "upward_expansion": 13.76, "deceleration": 36.36, "rotation_down": 58.14, "downward_expansion": 80.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 69.052667, 69.724363, 69.757484, 70.606409 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 68.379997, "trend_reference": 71.651977, "distance_from_trend": -0.045665, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 58.682278, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.165258, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.052721, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.083197, "excess_performance": -0.026148, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.045665, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012809, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.165258, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059185, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.040527, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.080501, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.083197, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.341317, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 57, "relative_activity": 1.482445, "balance": 1.341317, "dry_up": 1.36541, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02854, "annualized_volatility": 0.227045, "from_high_reference": -0.136595, "from_low_reference": 0.154219 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 71.651977, "fair_value_reference": 58.682278, "structural_low": 66.081276, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.062249, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.307692, "median_excess_return": 0.041283, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.232908, "worst_return": -0.127634, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.113613, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.081078, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.22921, "worst_return": 0.033608, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.12049, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.066189, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.187497, "worst_return": -0.065538, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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71.214643 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 72.139999, "volume": 13, "typical_volume": 42.1, "trend": 71.461514, "fair_value": 57.92642, "relative_strength": -1.460133, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.226097, "energy": 17.899252, "activity_lines": [ 70.623332, 69.891557, 70.464239, 71.269831 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 70.75, "volume": 21, "typical_volume": 43.15, "trend": 71.621689, "fair_value": 58.077273, "relative_strength": -5.05565, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.203167, "energy": 21.819252, "activity_lines": [ 70.792665, 70.121103, 70.360396, 71.223927 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 71.260002, "volume": 46, "typical_volume": 42.35, "trend": 71.710119, "fair_value": 58.22973, "relative_strength": -1.789515, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.556824, "energy": 20.447893, "activity_lines": [ 71.09, 70.429239, 70.340663, 71.200592 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 69.580002, "volume": 50, "typical_volume": 43.95, "trend": 71.742549, "fair_value": 58.37974, "relative_strength": -3.944285, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.122148, "energy": 19.123959, "activity_lines": [ 70.687334, 70.401063, 70.195712, 71.063166 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 67.970001, "volume": 57, "typical_volume": 41.1, "trend": 71.687179, "fair_value": 58.53025, "relative_strength": -7.864362, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.485492, "energy": 30.565388, "activity_lines": [ 69.706001, 70.016546, 69.932779, 70.819775 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 68.379997, "volume": 57, "typical_volume": 38.45, "trend": 71.651977, "fair_value": 58.682278, "relative_strength": -4.052721, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.538701, "energy": 49.503466, "activity_lines": [ 69.052667, 69.724363, 69.757484, 70.606409 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }