{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e21c878b-de4e-49b3-9a1b-b3ad6960feef", "symbol": "AZA", "name": "Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 75.308, "architecture_energy": 57.606, "architecture_maturity": 30.79, "architecture_confidence": 83.637, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.26, "rotation_up": 61.54, "upward_expansion": 81.97, "deceleration": 57.62, "rotation_down": 20.68, "downward_expansion": 8.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 392.080001, 388.052727, 373.58643, 363.33321 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 402.200012, "trend_reference": 350.742734, "distance_from_trend": 0.146709, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 275.439518, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.460212, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.143846, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.18808, "excess_performance": 0.126586, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.146709, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043802, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.460212, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.20379, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.031438, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.148202, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.18808, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.438719, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1286301, "relative_activity": 0.908906, "balance": 1.438719, "dry_up": 0.886178, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045155, "annualized_volatility": 0.283624, "from_high_reference": -0.000994, "from_low_reference": 0.31047 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 350.742734, "fair_value_reference": 275.439518, "structural_low": 306.912725, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.01948, "positive_rate": 0.347826, "directional_follow_through": 0.347826, "median_excess_return": -0.002515, "regime_survival": 0.652174, "best_return": 0.179709, "worst_return": -0.122387, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.031378, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.028214, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.26769, "worst_return": -0.274365, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.057137, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.030524, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.267942, "worst_return": -0.126432, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-10", "close": 381.399994, "volume": 1321754, "typical_volume": 1479561.3, "trend": 343.499639, "fair_value": 270.821198, "relative_strength": 1.137706, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.40513, "energy": 77.726177, "activity_lines": [ 384.546663, 373.056361, 360.007155, 351.862253 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 379.0, "volume": 1885540, "typical_volume": 1510485.15, "trend": 344.884004, "fair_value": 271.907776, "relative_strength": 1.70085, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.612792, "energy": 66.6034, "activity_lines": [ 383.019997, 376.245452, 362.783336, 354.152599 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 388.399994, "volume": 885044, "typical_volume": 1454704.45, "trend": 346.527079, "fair_value": 273.037022, "relative_strength": 2.706372, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.653471, "energy": 62.701652, "activity_lines": [ 384.639996, 380.216361, 366.16794, 356.960082 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 391.399994, "volume": 959654, "typical_volume": 1420722.6, "trend": 348.289433, "fair_value": 274.186634, "relative_strength": 2.20488, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.530529, "energy": 52.075286, "activity_lines": [ 386.693329, 383.561815, 369.522748, 359.855109 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 402.200012, "volume": 1286301, "typical_volume": 1415218.2, "trend": 350.742734, "fair_value": 275.439518, "relative_strength": 3.143846, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.308377, "energy": 57.606334, "activity_lines": [ 392.080001, 388.052727, 373.58643, 363.33321 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }