{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e226a158-c13a-4366-acb3-43d4f5247271", "symbol": "PROAC", "name": "Proactis SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.769, "architecture_energy": 29.658, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 86.153, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.6, "rotation_up": 26.42, "upward_expansion": 5.87, "deceleration": 53.4, "rotation_down": 41.48, "downward_expansion": 74.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.032933, 0.033173, 0.034526, 0.036769 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.038, "trend_reference": 0.039883, "distance_from_trend": -0.047221, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.061119, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.378264, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -21.956203, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.208333, "excess_performance": -0.261645, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.047221, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.109416, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.378264, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063439, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.219562, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.08159, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.208333, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.637284, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 165039, "relative_activity": 1.505763, "balance": 1.637284, "dry_up": 0.602909, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.15587, "annualized_volatility": 1.531664, "from_high_reference": -0.575419, "from_low_reference": 0.617021 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.039883, "fair_value_reference": 0.061119, "structural_low": 0.0235, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": -0.024242, "positive_rate": 0.439024, "directional_follow_through": 0.536585, "median_excess_return": -0.021306, "regime_survival": 0.902439, "best_return": 0.592593, "worst_return": -0.4, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.066116, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.015066, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.186275, "worst_return": -0.365385, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.201299, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.228016, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.166667, "worst_return": -0.317073, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.311712, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.293112, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": -0.017857, "worst_return": -0.454545, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-01-07", "end": "2022-09-02", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2022-09-09", "end": "2022-10-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.141844, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-10-14", "end": "2023-02-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.215686, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-02-10", "end": "2023-02-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-03-03", "end": "2023-05-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.233871, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-05-19", "end": "2023-06-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022472, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-06-09", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.230337, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.160584, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.203822, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-01-17", 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.334064, "energy": 54.32667, "activity_lines": [ 0.033733, 0.034327, 0.036731, 0.038982 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.035, "volume": 8604, "typical_volume": 169256.2, "trend": 0.041467, "fair_value": 0.062344, "relative_strength": -28.235851, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.485473, "energy": 41.497313, "activity_lines": [ 0.034, 0.034373, 0.036343, 0.038539 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.028, "volume": 22771, "typical_volume": 168371.3, "trend": 0.0409, "fair_value": 0.061908, "relative_strength": -41.95836, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.249361, "energy": 61.023477, "activity_lines": [ 0.032067, 0.033182, 0.03534, 0.03767 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.029, "volume": 67913, "typical_volume": 167379.25, "trend": 0.040067, "fair_value": 0.061478, "relative_strength": -39.904708, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.506655, "energy": 58.67255, "activity_lines": [ 0.030867, 0.032309, 0.03451, 0.036902 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.038, "volume": 165039, "typical_volume": 109604.9, "trend": 0.039883, "fair_value": 0.061119, "relative_strength": -21.956203, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.768712, "energy": 29.657792, "activity_lines": [ 0.032933, 0.033173, 0.034526, 0.036769 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }