{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "e2316d9a-5adb-4bdd-b3d6-ef99137cd371",
    "symbol": "NVDA",
    "name": "NVIDIA Corporation",
    "exchange": "VIE",
    "country": "AT",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^ATX",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 76.825,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 69.318,
    "architecture_energy": 39.151,
    "architecture_maturity": 26.005,
    "architecture_confidence": 66.972,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 41.31,
        "rotation_up": 53.02,
        "upward_expansion": 74.48,
        "deceleration": 60.02,
        "rotation_down": 21.54,
        "downward_expansion": 5.82
      },
      "activity_lines": [
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        175.537823
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Stable",
      "rotation_direction": "Stable",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 194.399994,
    "trend_reference": 170.017104,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.143414,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 118.49577,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.640565,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -3.183013,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.249598,
    "excess_performance": 0.075352,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.143414,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.046149,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.640565,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.084315,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.03183,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.055528,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.249598,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.248754,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 4993,
      "relative_activity": 1.11079,
      "balance": 1.248754,
      "dry_up": 1.382703,
      "accumulation_observations": 4,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.059404,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.356643,
      "from_high_reference": -0.03686,
      "from_low_reference": 0.388054
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 170.017104,
      "fair_value_reference": 118.49577,
      "structural_low": 144.713404,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 13,
        "median_return": 0.051188,
        "positive_rate": 0.769231,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.769231,
        "median_excess_return": 0.0449,
        "regime_survival": 0.461538,
        "best_return": 0.413458,
        "worst_return": -0.133182,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.057117,
        "positive_rate": 0.714286,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.714286,
        "median_excess_return": 0.039355,
        "regime_survival": 0.285714,
        "best_return": 0.435226,
        "worst_return": -0.22768,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.068859,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.206587,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.897745,
        "worst_return": 0.01414,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
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        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.115152,
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        "best_return": 1.640973,
        "worst_return": -0.377559,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
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        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "end": "2024-10-11",
        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-01-17",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.090163,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-03-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.188443,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "end": "2025-04-04",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.21809,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-11",
        "end": "2025-06-06",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.297027,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2025-07-25",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.199159,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "end": "2025-09-12",
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        "return": 0.002051,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "return": -0.032276,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "end": "2026-04-24",
        "tenure": "Established",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      {
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        "active": true
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        "volume": 2982,
        "typical_volume": 5228.0,
        "trend": 158.865264,
        "fair_value": 104.600895,
        "relative_strength": 2.80873,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 74.981318,
        "energy": 61.933156,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "typical_volume": 5226.85,
        "trend": 159.218573,
        "fair_value": 105.536915,
        "relative_strength": -2.399272,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 65.571205,
        "activity_lines": [
          170.643969,
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          159.781722
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 183.783035,
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        "typical_volume": 5383.15,
        "trend": 159.9647,
        "fair_value": 106.548286,
        "relative_strength": 2.369781,
        "stage": 3,
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        "direction": 79.462298,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "volume": 6180,
        "typical_volume": 5559.0,
        "trend": 161.33294,
        "fair_value": 107.620567,
        "relative_strength": 9.209089,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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        "energy": 87.693739,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 187.618088,
        "volume": 5626,
        "typical_volume": 5709.2,
        "trend": 162.272227,
        "fair_value": 108.592546,
        "relative_strength": 2.056506,
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 69.590031,
        "energy": 80.332648,
        "activity_lines": [
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          165.388957
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 184.462143,
        "volume": 3833,
        "typical_volume": 5617.05,
        "trend": 162.517059,
        "fair_value": 109.537539,
        "relative_strength": -2.551687,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 77.836634,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 180.820007,
        "volume": 433,
        "typical_volume": 5297.05,
        "trend": 163.353727,
        "fair_value": 110.464699,
        "relative_strength": -3.567415,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 63.507647,
        "energy": 63.70823,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 178.5,
        "volume": 559,
        "typical_volume": 5049.15,
        "trend": 163.854429,
        "fair_value": 111.355596,
        "relative_strength": -7.467572,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 43.728055,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 182.039993,
        "volume": 442,
        "typical_volume": 4798.55,
        "trend": 164.719766,
        "fair_value": 112.274341,
        "relative_strength": -9.466282,
        "stage": 3,
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        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 44.889499,
        "energy": 33.743919,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 170.0,
        "volume": 2445,
        "typical_volume": 4375.7,
        "trend": 165.297088,
        "fair_value": 113.116034,
        "relative_strength": -13.63656,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 34.325566,
        "energy": 21.263995,
        "activity_lines": [
          177.317475,
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          170.492501
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 171.919998,
        "volume": 538,
        "typical_volume": 4174.35,
        "trend": 165.821423,
        "fair_value": 113.967858,
        "relative_strength": -14.55273,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 29.304678,
        "energy": 22.478952,
        "activity_lines": [
          174.902665,
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          175.2219,
          170.919786
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 182.5,
        "volume": 11945,
        "typical_volume": 4594.9,
        "trend": 166.901745,
        "fair_value": 114.868,
        "relative_strength": -7.9552,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 39.327271,
        "energy": 21.64302,
        "activity_lines": [
          176.850665,
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          176.425975,
          171.995823
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 178.399994,
        "volume": 6079,
        "typical_volume": 4441.45,
        "trend": 167.739407,
        "fair_value": 115.753004,
        "relative_strength": -8.042658,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 30.842393,
        "energy": 18.158228,
        "activity_lines": [
          177.319997,
          178.627814,
          177.134667,
          172.737646
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 184.199997,
        "volume": 7478,
        "typical_volume": 4339.85,
        "trend": 168.567082,
        "fair_value": 116.661641,
        "relative_strength": -6.16236,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 55.59652,
        "energy": 29.938437,
        "activity_lines": [
          179.72933,
          179.168041,
          178.276741,
          173.799619
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 169.960007,
        "volume": 6311,
        "typical_volume": 4408.8,
        "trend": 168.850761,
        "fair_value": 117.488796,
        "relative_strength": -13.023325,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 13.825471,
        "energy": 12.694418,
        "activity_lines": [
          177.248,
          177.33422,
          177.931435,
          173.889485
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 194.399994,
        "volume": 4993,
        "typical_volume": 4495.0,
        "trend": 170.017104,
        "fair_value": 118.49577,
        "relative_strength": -3.183013,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 69.318187,
        "energy": 39.150791,
        "activity_lines": [
          182.915998,
          180.265089,
          179.85927,
          175.537823
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}