{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e2388a47-9b15-4673-a4d6-157ded1161f6", "symbol": "CLMA", "name": "Guinness Sustainable Energy UCITS ETF", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 51.673, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 0.214, "architecture_energy": 34.068, "architecture_maturity": 59.603, "architecture_confidence": 85.687, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.06, "rotation_up": 17.38, "upward_expansion": 60.45, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 51.48, "downward_expansion": 26.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.0117, 7.125522, 7.119407, 7.013756 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 6.9448, "trend_reference": 6.892823, "distance_from_trend": 0.007541, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.034867, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.150779, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.305699, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.032239, "excess_performance": -0.021072, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.007541, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042414, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.150779, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034799, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.013057, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.159422, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.032239, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.351695, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 5.351695, "dry_up": 0.221239, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.013171, "annualized_volatility": 0.170221, "from_high_reference": -0.057284, "from_low_reference": 0.294175 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.892823, "fair_value_reference": 6.034867, "structural_low": 6.107, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.055493, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.042298, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.088302, "worst_return": -0.021856, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.005809, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.053784, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.15681, "worst_return": -0.038954, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.009634, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.039951, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.159583, "worst_return": -0.140315, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.101038, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.000744, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.101038, "worst_return": 0.101038, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002991, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.203308, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.055439, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.108856, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.064241, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.064966, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.02087, "active": false 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"Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.447664, "energy": 89.045903, "activity_lines": [ 7.322347, 7.270967, 7.052929, 6.930811 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 7.3668, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 127.95, "trend": 6.794083, "fair_value": 6.029517, "relative_strength": 10.805097, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.385651, "energy": 87.938503, "activity_lines": [ 7.34278, 7.302871, 7.09718, 6.970022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.0611, "volume": 10, "typical_volume": 128.3, "trend": 6.82114, "fair_value": 6.030845, "relative_strength": 5.79872, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.074934, "energy": 58.234935, "activity_lines": [ 7.256893, 7.268424, 7.110116, 6.987249 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.0611, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 128.3, "trend": 6.848197, "fair_value": 6.031464, "relative_strength": 4.976091, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.906377, "energy": 43.267239, "activity_lines": [ 7.18338, 7.234733, 7.121987, 7.00273 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.9448, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 127.2, "trend": 6.87051, "fair_value": 6.03233, "relative_strength": 1.325857, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.589168, "energy": 30.849537, "activity_lines": [ 7.083473, 7.177995, 7.121717, 7.008963 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.9448, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 124.3, "trend": 6.892823, "fair_value": 6.034867, "relative_strength": -1.305699, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.214136, "energy": 34.068312, "activity_lines": [ 7.0117, 7.125522, 7.119407, 7.013756 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }