{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e23b7716-c61a-4d05-b430-a1f87750d71e", "symbol": "MBLINFRA", "name": "MBL Infrastructures Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -27.507, "architecture_energy": 27.102, "architecture_maturity": 29.915, "architecture_confidence": 62.87, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.33, "rotation_up": 20.46, "upward_expansion": 11.35, "deceleration": 49.83, "rotation_down": 55.4, "downward_expansion": 53.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.013333, 25.548, 25.992571, 25.77 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 24.52, "trend_reference": 25.781667, "distance_from_trend": -0.048937, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 43.235577, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.432874, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.791136, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.086438, "excess_performance": -0.042729, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.048937, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100284, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.432874, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086576, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.207911, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023796, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.086438, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.817714, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 58274, "relative_activity": 0.148084, "balance": 0.817714, "dry_up": 0.340242, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.114067, "annualized_volatility": 0.677622, "from_high_reference": -0.532774, "from_low_reference": 0.334785 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.781667, "fair_value_reference": 43.235577, "structural_low": 18.370001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.013219, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.013952, "regime_survival": 0.590909, "best_return": 0.341518, "worst_return": -0.242105, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.026597, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.043151, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.680272, "worst_return": -0.246457, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.025456, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.006414, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 1.560773, "worst_return": -0.257962, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.120377, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.133215, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.506494, "worst_return": -0.41287, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.12958, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.044018, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.171429, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.246662, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward 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"active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.036343, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.18222, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.231319, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.040313, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 22.65, "volume": 217619, "typical_volume": 588835.15, "trend": 19.553333, "fair_value": 20.572436, "relative_strength": 6.203773, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": 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after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.588964, "energy": 18.460889, "activity_lines": [ 25.883334, 26.414, 26.169524, 26.012387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.24, "volume": 135062, "typical_volume": 529323.75, "trend": 26.152333, "fair_value": 43.206026, "relative_strength": -17.298623, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.908787, "energy": 10.79211, "activity_lines": [ 25.634667, 26.18, 26.143333, 25.934688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.99, "volume": 218243, "typical_volume": 474484.55, "trend": 25.910333, "fair_value": 43.230641, "relative_strength": -19.424288, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.082585, "energy": 18.302617, "activity_lines": [ 25.402, 25.906182, 26.095095, 25.859699 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.52, "volume": 58274, "typical_volume": 393518.85, "trend": 25.781667, "fair_value": 43.235577, "relative_strength": -20.791136, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.507057, "energy": 27.101885, "activity_lines": [ 25.013333, 25.548, 25.992571, 25.77 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }