{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e2431757-e474-4b98-95d4-c62be58ca8a3", "symbol": "USFMD", "name": "UBS MSCI USA Select Factor Mix UCITS ETF USD dis", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.097, "architecture_energy": 72.287, "architecture_maturity": 91.916, "architecture_confidence": 70.517, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.47, "rotation_up": 59.22, "upward_expansion": 85.33, "deceleration": 68.67, "rotation_down": 29.95, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.262667, 38.191545, 37.336262, 36.488256 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 38.59, "trend_reference": 35.519187, "distance_from_trend": 0.086455, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 30.861907, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.250409, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.011935, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.150179, "excess_performance": -0.020712, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.086455, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054369, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.250409, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067555, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.030119, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016665, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.150179, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.294221, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 855, "relative_activity": 5.399432, "balance": 1.294221, "dry_up": 3.468582, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.011312, "annualized_volatility": 0.088362, "from_high_reference": -0.003615, "from_low_reference": 0.25063 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.519187, "fair_value_reference": 30.861907, "structural_low": 33.119999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": 0.00761, "positive_rate": 0.512195, "directional_follow_through": 0.512195, "median_excess_return": -0.009841, "regime_survival": 0.682927, "best_return": 0.190883, "worst_return": -0.153199, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.021644, "positive_rate": 0.6875, "directional_follow_through": 0.6875, "median_excess_return": 7.3e-05, "regime_survival": 0.5625, "best_return": 0.114564, "worst_return": -0.121753, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.055253, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.01512, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.136447, "worst_return": -0.108097, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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30.603693, "relative_strength": -0.891714, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.660992, "energy": 88.713907, "activity_lines": [ 38.287666, 37.851, 36.654691, 35.893513 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 38.365002, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 383.8, "trend": 35.180274, "fair_value": 30.690481, "relative_strength": -0.150069, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.016454, "energy": 69.783158, "activity_lines": [ 38.33, 38.024636, 36.913286, 36.111031 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 37.785, "volume": 1052, "typical_volume": 141.2, "trend": 35.34775, "fair_value": 30.77355, "relative_strength": -2.260187, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.876409, "energy": 67.463945, "activity_lines": [ 38.142, 38.046727, 37.096357, 36.279078 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.59, "volume": 855, "typical_volume": 158.35, "trend": 35.519187, "fair_value": 30.861907, "relative_strength": -3.011935, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.096878, "energy": 72.286937, "activity_lines": [ 38.262667, 38.191545, 37.336262, 36.488256 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }