{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e2453cbb-8f3a-4966-a10f-0062fa4f77d8", "symbol": "ORD", "name": "Ordell Minerals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.053, "architecture_energy": 36.937, "architecture_maturity": 48.63, "architecture_confidence": 68.119, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.3, "rotation_up": 23.78, "upward_expansion": 11.91, "deceleration": 62.76, "rotation_down": 41.38, "downward_expansion": 68.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.512667, 0.512273, 0.559429, 0.605882 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.525, "trend_reference": 0.672, "distance_from_trend": -0.21875, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.479028, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.09597, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.803221, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.304636, "excess_performance": -0.368341, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.21875, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001739, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.09597, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.362947, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.138032, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.39652, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.304636, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.698667, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 385796, "relative_activity": 1.33772, "balance": 0.698667, "dry_up": 1.348035, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.164469, "annualized_volatility": 0.89165, "from_high_reference": -0.504717, "from_low_reference": 0.615385 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.672, "fair_value_reference": 0.479028, "structural_low": 0.46, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.019608, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.034578, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.019608, "worst_return": -0.019608, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.193182, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.180556, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.163636, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.029412, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-07-19", "close": 0.21, "volume": 1478085, 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"energy": 58.562542, "activity_lines": [ 0.507667, 0.525, 0.590214, 0.638172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.52, "volume": 294793, "typical_volume": 320631.6, "trend": 0.682167, "fair_value": 0.478396, "relative_strength": -9.318135, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.933493, "energy": 44.565822, "activity_lines": [ 0.509, 0.518, 0.579238, 0.627538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.5, "volume": 271920, "typical_volume": 301108.8, "trend": 0.6785, "fair_value": 0.478598, "relative_strength": -15.231216, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.730858, "energy": 43.694508, "activity_lines": [ 0.508, 0.511545, 0.567643, 0.615785 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.525, "volume": 385796, "typical_volume": 288398.2, "trend": 0.672, "fair_value": 0.479028, "relative_strength": -13.803221, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.053211, "energy": 36.937049, "activity_lines": [ 0.512667, 0.512273, 0.559429, 0.605882 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }