{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e24a2242-b646-4ed4-9a88-14eaa1b7ad40", "symbol": "266390", "name": "KODEX Consumer Discretionary", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 25.192, "architecture_energy": 21.256, "architecture_maturity": 72.207, "architecture_confidence": 90.319, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.8, "rotation_up": 18.39, "upward_expansion": 52.08, "deceleration": 93.92, "rotation_down": 36.16, "downward_expansion": 20.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 14651.747005, 15229.035902, 15056.653646, 14257.388363 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 14750.0, "trend_reference": 13227.693001, "distance_from_trend": 0.115085, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9414.204221, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.566781, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.977318, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.364759, "excess_performance": 0.13493, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.115085, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.170524, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.566781, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.140829, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.039773, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.381444, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.364759, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.702067, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 58753, "relative_activity": 0.431802, "balance": 1.702067, "dry_up": 0.253791, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.116519, "annualized_volatility": 0.488073, "from_high_reference": -0.213123, "from_low_reference": 0.627674 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13227.693001, "fair_value_reference": 9414.204221, "structural_low": 9947.325849, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.034489, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.027535, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.249246, "worst_return": -0.059821, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.044689, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.100413, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.456737, "worst_return": -0.023558, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.108747, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.069552, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.273153, "worst_return": -0.095045, "sufficient": false }, { 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"fair_value": 9374.57877, "relative_strength": -6.310808, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.942152, "energy": 22.226763, "activity_lines": [ 14800.748568, 15438.425657, 14987.363007, 14148.868067 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14750.0, "volume": 58753, "typical_volume": 136064.6, "trend": 13227.693001, "fair_value": 9414.204221, "relative_strength": 3.977318, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.191914, "energy": 21.256422, "activity_lines": [ 14651.747005, 15229.035902, 15056.653646, 14257.388363 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }