{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e2510722-16f3-4c5b-bda5-a349af17bb49", "symbol": "MLFXO", "name": "Finaxo Environnement Societe Anonyme", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 87.08, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 41.043, "architecture_energy": 26.505, "architecture_maturity": 42.119, "architecture_confidence": 68.438, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.18, "rotation_up": 50.9, "upward_expansion": 76.36, "deceleration": 54.16, "rotation_down": 20.2, "downward_expansion": 7.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.606667, 4.594182, 4.553333, 4.545075 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4.5, "trend_reference": 4.493333, "distance_from_trend": 0.001484, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.902045, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.550631, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.995654, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.046512, "excess_performance": -0.0068, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.001484, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000668, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.550631, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025823, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.099957, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.109991, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.046512, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.36105, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 98, "relative_activity": 0.236544, "balance": 0.36105, "dry_up": 0.608255, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053675, "annualized_volatility": 0.42703, "from_high_reference": -0.274194, "from_low_reference": 0.461039 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.493333, "fair_value_reference": 2.902045, "structural_low": 3.5, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.043908, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.05, "worst_return": -0.1, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.033058, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.075559, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.11, "worst_return": -0.136546, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.167645, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.123161, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.17, "worst_return": 0.165289, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.357488, "energy": 17.586093, "activity_lines": [ 4.376, 4.426545, 4.498667, 4.462387 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 4.7, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 647.9, "trend": 4.41, "fair_value": 2.905122, "relative_strength": -3.824563, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.642396, "energy": 16.27846, "activity_lines": [ 4.484, 4.461091, 4.518762, 4.480344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 4.7, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 614.3, "trend": 4.433333, "fair_value": 2.905122, "relative_strength": -5.042796, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.215444, "energy": 19.696716, "activity_lines": [ 4.565333, 4.497455, 4.536952, 4.499054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 4.5, "volume": 1178, "typical_volume": 600.7, "trend": 4.443333, "fair_value": 2.90384, "relative_strength": -6.85644, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.441377, "energy": 18.495129, "activity_lines": [ 4.553333, 4.500727, 4.53419, 4.503355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.66, "volume": 567, "typical_volume": 606.0, "trend": 4.46, "fair_value": 2.903583, "relative_strength": -3.243752, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.802431, "energy": 26.762049, "activity_lines": [ 4.606667, 4.535273, 4.544286, 4.517333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.66, "volume": 283, "typical_volume": 566.1, "trend": 4.476667, "fair_value": 2.903327, "relative_strength": -3.368026, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.680141, "energy": 40.398582, "activity_lines": [ 4.636, 4.568727, 4.551333, 4.530237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.7, "volume": 60, "typical_volume": 468.65, "trend": 4.493333, "fair_value": 2.903327, "relative_strength": -3.928067, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.09477, "energy": 40.805379, "activity_lines": [ 4.654667, 4.603273, 4.561143, 4.544645 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.5, "volume": 98, "typical_volume": 414.3, "trend": 4.493333, "fair_value": 2.902045, "relative_strength": -9.995654, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.043163, "energy": 26.505467, "activity_lines": [ 4.606667, 4.594182, 4.553333, 4.545075 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }