{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e2531ccb-ada8-4ddb-ae1d-ccd8c23d8061", "symbol": "ONL", "name": "Orion Office Reit Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 67.021, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 20.089, "architecture_energy": 16.886, "architecture_maturity": 59.17, "architecture_confidence": 86.601, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.82, "rotation_up": 22.4, "upward_expansion": 47.63, "deceleration": 83.92, "rotation_down": 37.92, "downward_expansion": 30.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.698, 2.732238, 2.7572, 2.67272 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2.82, "trend_reference": 2.558261, "distance_from_trend": 0.102311, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.117225, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.095349, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.396649, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.107484, "excess_performance": -0.018141, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.102311, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.07996, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.095349, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043827, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.003966, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080054, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.107484, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.869454, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2107386, "relative_activity": 1.101927, "balance": 1.869454, "dry_up": 0.699025, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071293, "annualized_volatility": 0.483912, "from_high_reference": -0.07541, "from_low_reference": 0.505943 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.558261, "fair_value_reference": 3.117225, "structural_low": 1.872581, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.012681, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.029949, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.175487, "worst_return": -0.207692, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.045879, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.071499, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.130919, "worst_return": -0.127593, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.025679, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.0477, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.070682, "worst_return": -0.019324, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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1894653.25, "trend": 2.520585, "fair_value": 3.150033, "relative_strength": -3.602807, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.170063, "energy": 18.079821, "activity_lines": [ 2.688, 2.753726, 2.737435, 2.646561 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.64, "volume": 1335944, "typical_volume": 1912543.3, "trend": 2.533946, "fair_value": 3.134008, "relative_strength": -2.888388, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.595008, "energy": 17.312238, "activity_lines": [ 2.654667, 2.723533, 2.739559, 2.654265 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.82, "volume": 2107386, "typical_volume": 1912455.95, "trend": 2.558261, "fair_value": 3.117225, "relative_strength": 0.396649, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.088696, "energy": 16.886042, "activity_lines": [ 2.698, 2.732238, 2.7572, 2.67272 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }