{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e2616546-653f-49ce-a5a1-b5766d0aff38", "symbol": "ECK", "name": "LUDWIG BECK am Rathauseck - Textilhaus Feldmeier AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 37.368, "architecture_energy": 24.251, "architecture_maturity": 74.048, "architecture_confidence": 94.305, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.12, "rotation_up": 22.35, "upward_expansion": 55.0, "deceleration": 93.95, "rotation_down": 27.56, "downward_expansion": 21.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.466667, 24.312728, 22.986191, 21.699355 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 23.200001, "trend_reference": 19.946667, "distance_from_trend": 0.163102, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.136696, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.279175, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 29.137328, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.303371, "excess_performance": 0.238731, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.163102, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.286052, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.279175, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.328018, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.291373, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.086307, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.303371, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.274293, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3234, "relative_activity": 2.037679, "balance": 1.274293, "dry_up": 1.960809, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.102454, "annualized_volatility": 0.75143, "from_high_reference": -0.221476, "from_low_reference": 1.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.946667, "fair_value_reference": 18.136696, "structural_low": 17.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.01194, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.028177, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.465116, "worst_return": -0.058442, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.037844, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.047444, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.348315, "worst_return": -0.195454, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.158234, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.166952, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.022059, "worst_return": -0.225003, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.061224, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.046512, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.016129, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.219178, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.005618, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02809, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.212731, "energy": 64.333568, "activity_lines": [ 25.306667, 24.376364, 21.912381, 20.511183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 24.799999, "volume": 3248, "typical_volume": 1204.95, "trend": 18.826667, "fair_value": 18.198495, "relative_strength": 50.80577, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.809571, "energy": 53.270129, "activity_lines": [ 24.973333, 24.758182, 22.337619, 20.924731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.200001, "volume": 4361, "typical_volume": 1406.1, "trend": 19.196667, "fair_value": 18.17153, "relative_strength": 38.08227, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.00932, "energy": 37.671379, "activity_lines": [ 24.24, 24.716364, 22.579048, 21.206882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.2, "volume": 1605, "typical_volume": 1467.5, "trend": 19.57, "fair_value": 18.145838, "relative_strength": 33.910838, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.496124, "energy": 27.883821, "activity_lines": [ 23.786667, 24.567273, 22.795714, 21.465161 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.200001, "volume": 3234, "typical_volume": 1587.1, "trend": 19.946667, "fair_value": 18.136696, "relative_strength": 29.137328, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.368114, "energy": 24.251031, "activity_lines": [ 23.466667, 24.312728, 22.986191, 21.699355 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }