{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e27344c6-6865-4fea-b2a8-7114bd763b44", "symbol": "METV", "name": "LISTED FUND TRUST ROUNDHILL BALL METAVERSE ETF USD", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 77.761, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 62.835, "architecture_energy": 33.423, "architecture_maturity": 24.444, "architecture_confidence": 65.039, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.71, "rotation_up": 46.48, "upward_expansion": 76.87, "deceleration": 60.41, "rotation_down": 23.69, "downward_expansion": 3.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.710333, 18.610727, 18.488422, 18.101453 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 19.195, "trend_reference": 17.786257, "distance_from_trend": 0.079204, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.890347, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.28909, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.997639, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.136471, "excess_performance": 0.010846, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.079204, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011748, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.28909, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040832, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.079976, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005719, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.136471, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.041097, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 145842, "relative_activity": 0.562827, "balance": 1.041097, "dry_up": 0.823489, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048907, "annualized_volatility": 0.256205, "from_high_reference": -0.101651, "from_low_reference": 0.265743 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.786257, "fair_value_reference": 14.890347, "structural_low": 15.165, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.01546, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.007754, "regime_survival": 0.814815, "best_return": 0.137485, "worst_return": -0.14993, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.06449, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.006703, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.278668, "worst_return": -0.093057, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.15283, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.007922, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.16181, "worst_return": 0.052805, "sufficient": true }, { 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25.968244, "energy": 34.520964, "activity_lines": [ 18.67216, 18.427925, 17.660347, 17.708008 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 18.02, "volume": 208328, "typical_volume": 308924.5, "trend": 17.898674, "fair_value": 14.468296, "relative_strength": -11.532871, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.655278, "energy": 27.038351, "activity_lines": [ 18.430647, 18.429149, 17.722239, 17.713178 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 18.66, "volume": 333456, "typical_volume": 311003.1, "trend": 17.908763, "fair_value": 14.523453, "relative_strength": -9.071958, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.714878, "energy": 21.670397, "activity_lines": [ 18.459333, 18.510555, 17.849036, 17.762296 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 17.68, "volume": 322818, "typical_volume": 293277.9, "trend": 17.856238, "fair_value": 14.570476, "relative_strength": -11.535948, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 6.789414, "energy": 12.030782, "activity_lines": [ 18.158, 18.373505, 17.879928, 17.747537 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 18.73, "volume": 206437, "typical_volume": 272277.9, "trend": 17.832058, "fair_value": 14.624613, "relative_strength": -8.114261, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.03806, "energy": 12.613145, "activity_lines": [ 18.290667, 18.43082, 18.007058, 17.803909 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 19.19, "volume": 246441, "typical_volume": 275289.2, "trend": 17.835524, "fair_value": 14.678376, "relative_strength": -6.952935, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.310454, "energy": 38.028534, "activity_lines": [ 18.616667, 18.558771, 18.167759, 17.891518 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.76, "volume": 306289, "typical_volume": 274009.3, "trend": 17.834971, "fair_value": 14.731044, "relative_strength": -7.321838, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.466921, "energy": 38.785089, "activity_lines": [ 18.718, 18.587813, 18.275222, 17.951162 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.31, "volume": 167778, "typical_volume": 267543.2, "trend": 17.81609, "fair_value": 14.77955, "relative_strength": -8.729609, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.894176, "energy": 38.644399, "activity_lines": [ 18.62, 18.537091, 18.329686, 17.981809 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.26, "volume": 233635, "typical_volume": 267114.65, "trend": 17.784423, "fair_value": 14.830419, "relative_strength": -9.689303, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.936887, "energy": 28.812257, "activity_lines": [ 18.528667, 18.482727, 18.369435, 18.010448 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.195, "volume": 145842, "typical_volume": 259124.2, "trend": 17.786257, "fair_value": 14.890347, "relative_strength": -7.997639, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.834858, "energy": 33.422812, "activity_lines": [ 18.710333, 18.610727, 18.488422, 18.101453 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }