{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e27713a9-f433-480d-a85c-ea6c7de99ff9", "symbol": "605366", "name": "Jiangxi Hungpai New Material Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 62.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -37.292, "architecture_energy": 67.787, "architecture_maturity": 17.349, "architecture_confidence": 63.022, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.63, "rotation_up": 16.17, "upward_expansion": 23.65, "deceleration": 43.05, "rotation_down": 71.08, "downward_expansion": 62.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.846667, 9.126182, 10.355048, 10.523118 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 8.46, "trend_reference": 10.154333, "distance_from_trend": -0.166858, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.229542, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.170199, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.206277, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.203414, "excess_performance": 0.246618, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.166858, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.127007, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.170199, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.680271, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.002063, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.613538, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.203414, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.524544, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 186549614, "relative_activity": 1.267003, "balance": 0.524544, "dry_up": 1.075519, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.220586, "annualized_volatility": 0.944247, "from_high_reference": -0.419355, "from_low_reference": 0.46875 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.154333, "fair_value_reference": 7.229542, "structural_low": 6.39, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.091579, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.020263, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.112769, "worst_return": 0.037453, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.041645, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.003946, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.194399, "worst_return": 0.013109, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.047749, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.021572, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.233831, "worst_return": -0.222291, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.083587, 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161348587.65, "trend": 9.965, "fair_value": 7.266213, "relative_strength": 20.659404, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.190254, "energy": 14.98434, "activity_lines": [ 11.598667, 11.554, 11.808619, 11.147484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.89, "volume": 145734198, "typical_volume": 161393799.95, "trend": 10.025333, "fair_value": 7.256931, "relative_strength": -1.87978, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -16.578093, "energy": 17.108415, "activity_lines": [ 10.396667, 10.855091, 11.456095, 11.013613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.09, "volume": 175256442, "typical_volume": 154593838.85, "trend": 10.058333, "fair_value": 7.244494, "relative_strength": -12.983219, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.010655, "energy": 60.527503, "activity_lines": [ 9.078667, 10.107273, 11.031524, 10.824237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.01, "volume": 125884638, "typical_volume": 149069359.7, "trend": 10.079, "fair_value": 7.230462, "relative_strength": -14.36708, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -48.856694, "energy": 72.426578, "activity_lines": [ 7.975333, 9.430545, 10.617571, 10.62757 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.46, "volume": 186549614, "typical_volume": 147236970.2, "trend": 10.154333, "fair_value": 7.229542, "relative_strength": 0.206277, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.292449, "energy": 67.787068, "activity_lines": [ 7.846667, 9.126182, 10.355048, 10.523118 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }