{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e278549c-ba1d-4bad-a870-9d99a04b7a17", "symbol": "SXLE", "name": "State Street SPDR S&P U.S. Energy Select Sector UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 54.523, "architecture_energy": 52.483, "architecture_maturity": 5.32, "architecture_confidence": 68.965, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.45, "rotation_up": 66.55, "upward_expansion": 79.39, "deceleration": 52.76, "rotation_down": 11.51, "downward_expansion": 10.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.896334, 39.99, 39.668572, 39.517441 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 40.375, "trend_reference": 38.766, "distance_from_trend": 0.041505, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 32.374263, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.247133, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.096116, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.118421, "excess_performance": -0.052471, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.041505, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.081661, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.247133, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036421, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.010961, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04198, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.118421, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.052434, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 69868, "relative_activity": 0.489334, "balance": 2.052434, "dry_up": 0.499285, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048802, "annualized_volatility": 0.312056, "from_high_reference": -0.093613, "from_low_reference": 0.426175 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.766, "fair_value_reference": 32.374263, "structural_low": 35.785, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.000823, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.038841, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.192322, "worst_return": -0.14788, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.084669, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.000223, "regime_survival": 0.384615, "best_return": 0.328213, "worst_return": -0.161643, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.036585, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.078954, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.3247, "worst_return": -0.1938, "sufficient": true }, { 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"fair_value": 32.066923, "relative_strength": -3.439538, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.954884, "energy": 17.378413, "activity_lines": [ 38.017334, 38.610273, 39.086476, 38.693183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 40.450001, "volume": 52176, "typical_volume": 166933.5, "trend": 37.727167, "fair_value": 32.146891, "relative_strength": 3.202271, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.332528, "energy": 13.707287, "activity_lines": [ 38.758001, 38.883728, 39.188048, 38.891334 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 42.375, "volume": 86302, "typical_volume": 156330.25, "trend": 38.135667, "fair_value": 32.234455, "relative_strength": 7.995418, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.148287, "energy": 40.699368, "activity_lines": [ 40.106334, 39.462455, 39.458095, 39.191194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 41.305, "volume": 76809, "typical_volume": 148410.25, "trend": 38.4875, "fair_value": 32.309872, "relative_strength": 4.350588, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.521246, "energy": 49.951993, "activity_lines": [ 40.769667, 39.815273, 39.610143, 39.395667 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.375, "volume": 69868, "typical_volume": 142781.75, "trend": 38.766, "fair_value": 32.374263, "relative_strength": -1.096116, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.522611, "energy": 52.483097, "activity_lines": [ 40.896334, 39.99, 39.668572, 39.517441 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }