{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e278daf1-5244-4224-952d-54cf56aa00c8", "symbol": "PROV", "name": "Provident Financial Holdings Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 76.436, "architecture_energy": 64.686, "architecture_maturity": 70.008, "architecture_confidence": 73.281, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.99, "rotation_up": 70.58, "upward_expansion": 87.48, "deceleration": 46.32, "rotation_down": 14.32, "downward_expansion": 11.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.599667, 17.406, 17.221345, 16.990838 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 17.925, "trend_reference": 16.672886, "distance_from_trend": 0.075099, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.147184, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.267037, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.499967, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.121047, "excess_performance": -0.066407, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.075099, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039291, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.267037, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024931, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.025, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.066426, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.121047, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.158647, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 59259, "relative_activity": 1.544452, "balance": 2.158647, "dry_up": 0.93592, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027885, "annualized_volatility": 0.103142, "from_high_reference": -0.023161, "from_low_reference": 0.22368 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.672886, "fair_value_reference": 14.147184, "structural_low": 15.561844, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.004441, "positive_rate": 0.578947, "directional_follow_through": 0.578947, "median_excess_return": -0.025226, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.075736, "worst_return": -0.079706, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.014719, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.064399, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.163058, "worst_return": -0.170221, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.007452, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.088126, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.088134, "worst_return": -0.05583, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 36309.85, "trend": 16.53562, "fair_value": 14.079967, "relative_strength": -1.16972, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.217047, "energy": 45.097796, "activity_lines": [ 17.220667, 17.150727, 17.038554, 16.826608 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.76, "volume": 40558, "typical_volume": 36903.25, "trend": 16.603814, "fair_value": 14.11236, "relative_strength": 1.449111, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.051633, "energy": 60.898519, "activity_lines": [ 17.401333, 17.268182, 17.126476, 16.905601 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.925, "volume": 59259, "typical_volume": 38368.95, "trend": 16.672886, "fair_value": 14.147184, "relative_strength": -2.499967, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.435787, "energy": 64.686488, "activity_lines": [ 17.599667, 17.406, 17.221345, 16.990838 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }