{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e27a143e-dc29-4907-b433-4e595420af52", "symbol": "603286", "name": "Jiangsu Riying Electronics Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.041, "architecture_energy": 76.341, "architecture_maturity": 32.0, "architecture_confidence": 87.862, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.59, "rotation_up": 9.55, "upward_expansion": 18.01, "deceleration": 37.4, "rotation_down": 70.54, "downward_expansion": 89.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.888, 45.090363, 51.702476, 54.946516 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 41.84, "trend_reference": 59.517, "distance_from_trend": -0.297008, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 32.284549, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.295976, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.137099, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.39239, "excess_performance": -0.349187, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.297008, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015603, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.295976, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.057444, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.201371, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.549483, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.39239, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.528506, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22092370, "relative_activity": 1.243265, "balance": 0.528506, "dry_up": 1.126485, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.208137, "annualized_volatility": 0.7281, "from_high_reference": -0.506546, "from_low_reference": 0.413036 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 59.517, "fair_value_reference": 32.284549, "structural_low": 34.169998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.066519, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.033714, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.179813, "worst_return": -0.337254, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.208925, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.069844, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.110195, "worst_return": -0.171081, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.264935, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.230186, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.274363, "worst_return": 0.057713, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-10", "close": 53.669998, "volume": 32216599, "typical_volume": 16865736.65, "trend": 62.201, "fair_value": 31.742284, "relative_strength": 2.325222, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.297135, "energy": 58.611417, "activity_lines": [ 52.879999, 55.54909, 58.565952, 60.435763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 43.279999, "volume": 19888800, "typical_volume": 17185691.5, "trend": 61.802, "fair_value": 31.893473, "relative_strength": -12.850896, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.715318, "energy": 62.650544, "activity_lines": [ 49.729332, 52.724726, 56.987333, 59.215054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 37.630001, "volume": 21621520, "typical_volume": 17064361.3, "trend": 61.152667, "fair_value": 32.010169, "relative_strength": -25.399468, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.246677, "energy": 63.924723, "activity_lines": [ 45.433333, 49.343454, 54.980523, 57.65557 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 37.75, "volume": 16466250, "typical_volume": 17158441.85, "trend": 60.427667, "fair_value": 32.130638, "relative_strength": -25.705222, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.703774, "energy": 77.959112, "activity_lines": [ 42.227333, 46.549272, 53.094428, 56.14572 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 41.84, "volume": 22092370, "typical_volume": 17769640.45, "trend": 59.517, "fair_value": 32.284549, "relative_strength": -20.137099, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.04143, "energy": 76.340697, "activity_lines": [ 40.888, 45.090363, 51.702476, 54.946516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }