{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e28c8c16-2e10-4d10-9f49-474a438d2208", "symbol": "NB", "name": "NioCorp Developments Ltd. Common Stock", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.598, "architecture_energy": 29.781, "architecture_maturity": 12.107, "architecture_confidence": 95.007, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.99, "rotation_up": 20.76, "upward_expansion": 5.31, "deceleration": 47.31, "rotation_down": 53.32, "downward_expansion": 78.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.625333, 4.660273, 4.972881, 5.064505 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.36, "trend_reference": 5.298, "distance_from_trend": 0.011703, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.575513, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.499086, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.076631, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.101425, "excess_performance": -0.288879, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.011703, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070635, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.499086, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.206567, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.180766, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.17354, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.101425, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.650414, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27101217, "relative_activity": 1.469155, "balance": 0.650414, "dry_up": 0.916484, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.15028, "annualized_volatility": 0.670091, "from_high_reference": -0.573927, "from_low_reference": 0.531429 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.298, "fair_value_reference": 3.575513, "structural_low": 3.82, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.023121, "positive_rate": 0.457143, "directional_follow_through": 0.542857, "median_excess_return": -0.0764, "regime_survival": 0.828571, "best_return": 0.438272, "worst_return": -0.266949, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.124294, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.190139, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.264516, "worst_return": -0.320312, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.196179, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.227945, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.107345, "worst_return": -0.450746, "sufficient": true }, { 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.151079, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.025105, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.183857, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.463918, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 1.315789, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": 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4.782, 5.032182, 5.207571, 5.298323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.26, "volume": 15057956, "typical_volume": 19265130.3, "trend": 5.4375, "fair_value": 3.573622, "relative_strength": -32.284289, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.222066, "energy": 65.049102, "activity_lines": [ 4.560667, 4.852727, 5.119905, 5.219194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.14, "volume": 10329527, "typical_volume": 18490532.15, "trend": 5.385833, "fair_value": 3.570673, "relative_strength": -33.193217, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.578649, "energy": 66.979215, "activity_lines": [ 4.375333, 4.684727, 5.025762, 5.135484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.255, "volume": 15136076, "typical_volume": 18168446.0, "trend": 5.329333, "fair_value": 3.568846, "relative_strength": -31.779136, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.979826, "energy": 63.528601, "activity_lines": [ 4.306333, 4.561636, 4.945571, 5.062527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.36, "volume": 27101217, "typical_volume": 18446805.5, "trend": 5.298, "fair_value": 3.575513, "relative_strength": -18.076631, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.598306, "energy": 29.781447, "activity_lines": [ 4.625333, 4.660273, 4.972881, 5.064505 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }