{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e28fe035-e012-4b1b-be49-d0e051ab5322", "symbol": "MARA", "name": "Marathon Digital Holdings Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 74.039, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -5.094, "architecture_energy": 17.781, "architecture_maturity": 43.481, "architecture_confidence": 75.443, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.67, "rotation_up": 14.89, "upward_expansion": 41.23, "deceleration": 82.66, "rotation_down": 43.49, "downward_expansion": 35.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.071333, 11.881273, 12.299429, 11.717118 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 10.09, "trend_reference": 10.971333, "distance_from_trend": -0.080331, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.542628, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.350818, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.690235, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.224515, "excess_performance": 0.037061, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.080331, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036139, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.350818, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.180941, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.296902, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09369, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.224515, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.195773, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 177391734, "relative_activity": 0.820323, "balance": 1.195773, "dry_up": 1.107054, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.242784, "annualized_volatility": 0.736887, "from_high_reference": -0.569723, "from_low_reference": 0.515015 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.971333, "fair_value_reference": 15.542628, "structural_low": 7.14, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.138447, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.121533, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.616105, "worst_return": -0.178199, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.052152, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.026842, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.196411, "worst_return": -0.278552, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.055495, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.104561, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.365902, "worst_return": -0.425677, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.115015, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.100491, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.946162, "worst_return": -0.716131, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.301376, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.256905, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.179171, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.053161, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.189822, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.355524, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.196822, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.15531, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.149062, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.015013, "active": false }, { 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216938432, "typical_volume": 218495431.85, "trend": 10.827333, "fair_value": 15.671282, "relative_strength": -17.073187, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.056401, "energy": 27.021266, "activity_lines": [ 13.249333, 13.387455, 12.531762, 11.67557 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.69, "volume": 229978491, "typical_volume": 215933020.7, "trend": 10.844333, "fair_value": 15.631603, "relative_strength": -25.250603, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.19138, "energy": 15.759064, "activity_lines": [ 12.29, 12.899636, 12.457333, 11.66671 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.12, "volume": 317087145, "typical_volume": 218337982.1, "trend": 10.928667, "fair_value": 15.602244, "relative_strength": -12.828694, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.55672, "energy": 20.514481, "activity_lines": [ 12.033333, 12.712727, 12.510762, 11.749011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.32, "volume": 233127916, "typical_volume": 218271054.7, "trend": 10.975667, "fair_value": 15.573333, "relative_strength": -18.126097, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.430886, "energy": 14.478805, "activity_lines": [ 11.65, 12.386182, 12.468429, 11.774258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.09, "volume": 177391734, "typical_volume": 216246230.95, "trend": 10.971333, "fair_value": 15.542628, "relative_strength": -29.690235, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -5.094361, "energy": 17.78146, "activity_lines": [ 11.071333, 11.881273, 12.299429, 11.717118 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }