{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e29ca1e2-c36d-4600-9234-cfeef86eda88", "symbol": "MARI", "name": "Marinomed Biotech AG", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -72.267, "architecture_energy": 88.489, "architecture_maturity": 80.0, "architecture_confidence": 84.196, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.69, "rotation_up": 8.96, "upward_expansion": 21.32, "deceleration": 37.32, "rotation_down": 84.03, "downward_expansion": 99.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.556667, 6.86, 8.56, 10.23747 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 5.4, "trend_reference": 12.611579, "distance_from_trend": -0.571822, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.34697, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.705673, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -72.730155, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.693182, "excess_performance": -0.867429, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.571822, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.232946, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.705673, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.222602, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.727302, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.231348, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.693182, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.348645, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7500, "relative_activity": 0.519069, "balance": 0.348645, "dry_up": 0.872243, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.279915, "annualized_volatility": 1.453439, "from_high_reference": -0.742857, "from_low_reference": 1.454545 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.611579, "fair_value_reference": 18.34697, "structural_low": 2.2, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 45, "median_return": -0.074359, "positive_rate": 0.244444, "directional_follow_through": 0.733333, "median_excess_return": -0.081023, "regime_survival": 0.933333, "best_return": 0.751852, "worst_return": -0.46, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.185859, "positive_rate": 0.266667, "directional_follow_through": 0.733333, "median_excess_return": -0.141572, "regime_survival": 0.866667, "best_return": 1.352941, "worst_return": -0.724638, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.199681, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.227148, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.375, "worst_return": -0.797872, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.18346, "energy": 67.48896, "activity_lines": [ 9.41, 9.734545, 10.967331, 12.454759 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.8, "volume": 21124, "typical_volume": 13912.25, "trend": 13.941579, "fair_value": 19.055304, "relative_strength": -81.259452, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -95.502757, "energy": 80.475597, "activity_lines": [ 7.48, 8.618182, 10.146867, 11.767238 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.0, "volume": 19594, "typical_volume": 14518.35, "trend": 13.514912, "fair_value": 18.825175, "relative_strength": -70.209652, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.40132, "energy": 70.575579, "activity_lines": [ 6.736667, 8.030909, 9.60188, 11.254878 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.4, "volume": 2194, "typical_volume": 14411.7, "trend": 13.054912, "fair_value": 18.585432, "relative_strength": -72.54509, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.460387, "energy": 81.119915, "activity_lines": [ 6.02, 7.407273, 9.05213, 10.731336 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.4, "volume": 7500, "typical_volume": 14448.95, "trend": 12.611579, "fair_value": 18.34697, "relative_strength": -72.730155, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.266899, "energy": 88.489195, "activity_lines": [ 5.556667, 6.86, 8.56, 10.23747 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }