{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e29e4e53-8320-4586-9557-7299a0e798e9", "symbol": "900926", "name": "Shanghai Baosight Software Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.511, "architecture_energy": 32.376, "architecture_maturity": 31.111, "architecture_confidence": 63.233, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.94, "rotation_up": 24.78, "upward_expansion": 15.64, "deceleration": 66.51, "rotation_down": 37.86, "downward_expansion": 63.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.882133, 0.877855, 0.899424, 0.925308 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.9, "trend_reference": 0.964503, "distance_from_trend": -0.066877, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.375994, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.345927, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.595306, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.133016, "excess_performance": -0.089812, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.066877, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033045, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.345927, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004004, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.095953, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.101931, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.133016, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.713229, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6777858, "relative_activity": 1.136343, "balance": 0.713229, "dry_up": 1.086564, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055969, "annualized_volatility": 0.259013, "from_high_reference": -0.338678, "from_low_reference": 0.107011 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.964503, "fair_value_reference": 1.375994, "structural_low": 0.813, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.031818, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.044092, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.048576, "worst_return": -0.133465, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.119353, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.101295, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.062691, "worst_return": -0.17785, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.114303, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.087867, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.00553, "worst_return": -0.260812, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.299427, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.253148, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.030937, "worst_return": -0.314272, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-08-18", "end": "2024-02-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.136536, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.091817, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.093778, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.037809, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.00237, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.018628, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.082575, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.104319, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.018745, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019074, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.211445, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.05827, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.058302, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 2.135986, "volume": 3620041, "typical_volume": 5717092.65, "trend": 2.195371, "fair_value": 1.852852, "relative_strength": -2.895753, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.4308, "energy": 61.71916, "activity_lines": [ 0.877733, 0.891111, 0.923481, 0.950076 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.867, "volume": 7693863, "typical_volume": 6308822.65, "trend": 0.972778, "fair_value": 1.401434, "relative_strength": -11.791745, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.946268, "energy": 52.950708, "activity_lines": [ 0.874867, 0.883218, 0.915541, 0.943166 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.842, "volume": 5917064, "typical_volume": 6028308.35, "trend": 0.970592, "fair_value": 1.392748, "relative_strength": -14.524854, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.930801, "energy": 49.896263, "activity_lines": [ 0.8654, 0.872818, 0.906067, 0.934729 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.892, "volume": 5535012, "typical_volume": 5953386.9, "trend": 0.96743, "fair_value": 1.384211, "relative_strength": -8.895079, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.75503, "energy": 35.916847, "activity_lines": [ 0.874867, 0.873873, 0.902122, 0.929659 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.9, "volume": 6777858, "typical_volume": 5964624.95, "trend": 0.964503, "fair_value": 1.375994, "relative_strength": -9.595306, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.511446, "energy": 32.376051, "activity_lines": [ 0.882133, 0.877855, 0.899424, 0.925308 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }