{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e29fd0e7-49ee-44ee-a49b-5cf4e5a5dfea", "symbol": "603587", "name": "Dazzle Fashion Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.039, "architecture_energy": 38.867, "architecture_maturity": 52.986, "architecture_confidence": 76.774, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.64, "rotation_up": 23.74, "upward_expansion": 9.84, "deceleration": 60.56, "rotation_down": 45.99, "downward_expansion": 71.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.311524, 11.330543, 11.802244, 12.04407 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 11.38, "trend_reference": 12.369171, "distance_from_trend": -0.079971, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.097142, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.059282, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.262858, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.137879, "excess_performance": -0.094675, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.079971, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041348, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.059282, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.136528, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.092629, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038942, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.137879, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.306472, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10002970, "relative_activity": 1.118421, "balance": 0.306472, "dry_up": 1.185139, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065691, "annualized_volatility": 0.247009, "from_high_reference": -0.188302, "from_low_reference": 0.083081 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.369171, "fair_value_reference": 12.097142, "structural_low": 10.507061, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.008091, "positive_rate": 0.478261, "directional_follow_through": 0.521739, "median_excess_return": -0.000928, "regime_survival": 0.782609, "best_return": 0.109496, "worst_return": -0.124169, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.009926, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.022452, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.140351, "worst_return": -0.151964, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.077131, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.021296, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.142857, "worst_return": -0.196332, "sufficient": true }, { 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11.978458, 12.294472, 12.468178 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 11.077362, "volume": 7922307, "typical_volume": 8480922.65, "trend": 12.625025, "fair_value": 12.15156, "relative_strength": -14.130755, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.884376, "energy": 83.84354, "activity_lines": [ 11.270777, 11.742825, 12.163823, 12.364001 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.357679, "volume": 9568020, "typical_volume": 8652118.65, "trend": 12.583948, "fair_value": 12.139766, "relative_strength": -6.243454, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.662544, "energy": 77.066383, "activity_lines": [ 11.24462, 11.599299, 12.067789, 12.282237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.806711, "volume": 10565462, "typical_volume": 8573416.75, "trend": 12.499171, "fair_value": 12.123631, "relative_strength": -11.602529, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.600915, "energy": 64.546257, "activity_lines": [ 11.088961, 11.388729, 11.92696, 12.167576 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.64, "volume": 12262300, "typical_volume": 8831570.75, "trend": 12.435171, "fair_value": 12.111682, "relative_strength": -4.951917, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.309672, "energy": 46.558053, "activity_lines": [ 11.273285, 11.371909, 11.874316, 12.112146 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.38, "volume": 10002970, "typical_volume": 8943833.55, "trend": 12.369171, "fair_value": 12.097142, "relative_strength": -9.262858, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.038788, "energy": 38.867007, "activity_lines": [ 11.311524, 11.330543, 11.802244, 12.04407 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }