{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e2abe83f-6bed-4070-a27d-c5fa53b3738a", "symbol": "IBDT", "name": "ISHARES TRUST IBONDS DEC 2028 TERM CORPORATE ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 51.629, "architecture_energy": 24.041, "architecture_maturity": 26.239, "architecture_confidence": 61.024, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.17, "rotation_up": 44.13, "upward_expansion": 72.66, "deceleration": 58.37, "rotation_down": 23.96, "downward_expansion": 6.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.109981, 25.105393, 25.097191, 25.091027 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 25.16, "trend_reference": 25.084904, "distance_from_trend": 0.002994, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.596245, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.066271, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.248663, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.001707, "excess_performance": -0.123918, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.002994, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002792, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.066271, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010895, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.102487, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002769, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.001707, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.048223, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2653121, "relative_activity": 0.913282, "balance": 1.048223, "dry_up": 1.03458, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.00447, "annualized_volatility": 0.018255, "from_high_reference": -0.004376, "from_low_reference": 0.029518 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.084904, "fair_value_reference": 23.596245, "structural_low": 24.912308, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.000648, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.000997, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.031684, "worst_return": -0.039636, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.001965, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.014465, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.043367, "worst_return": -0.041625, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.012456, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.007506, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.041317, "worst_return": 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"up", "direction": 22.222044, "energy": 11.103135, "activity_lines": [ 25.082442, 25.092248, 25.086666, 25.084076 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.101908, "volume": 2421468, "typical_volume": 2948676.8, "trend": 25.078773, "fair_value": 23.571965, "relative_strength": -7.618357, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.292731, "energy": 13.162394, "activity_lines": [ 25.084639, 25.094135, 25.089425, 25.085786 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.16, "volume": 2653121, "typical_volume": 2905040.5, "trend": 25.084904, "fair_value": 23.596245, "relative_strength": -10.248663, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.628735, "energy": 24.040737, "activity_lines": [ 25.109981, 25.105393, 25.097191, 25.091027 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }