{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e2acb3ca-9823-4d38-b8ff-37eed6b8dd33", "symbol": "000823", "name": "Guangdong Goworld Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 61.503, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -21.855, "architecture_energy": 37.322, "architecture_maturity": 54.267, "architecture_confidence": 59.88, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.19, "rotation_up": 14.03, "upward_expansion": 17.08, "deceleration": 72.24, "rotation_down": 66.17, "downward_expansion": 42.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.052667, 16.681091, 17.124572, 16.65638 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 15.14, "trend_reference": 15.995683, "distance_from_trend": -0.053495, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.925947, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.385692, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.303265, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.073218, "excess_performance": 0.065819, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.053495, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.118963, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.385692, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.317524, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.003033, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084035, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.073218, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.665043, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 322839432, "relative_activity": 1.681227, "balance": 0.665043, "dry_up": 1.472111, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.217762, "annualized_volatility": 0.921334, "from_high_reference": -0.468025, "from_low_reference": 0.316838 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.995683, "fair_value_reference": 10.925947, "structural_low": 11.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.045296, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.030718, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.176285, "worst_return": -0.13373, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.044629, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.023383, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.774406, "worst_return": -0.222738, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.035678, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.036584, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.189553, "worst_return": -0.226788, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.020038, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.121212, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.031795, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.075025, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.063604, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 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"close": 13.76, "volume": 283271123, "typical_volume": 171395808.1, "trend": 15.964348, "fair_value": 10.841176, "relative_strength": -6.09496, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.093525, "energy": 25.386965, "activity_lines": [ 19.072666, 19.381273, 18.029462, 17.113919 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.04, "volume": 278402778, "typical_volume": 179365329.6, "trend": 15.96964, "fair_value": 10.865518, "relative_strength": -11.168856, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.837897, "energy": 20.353973, "activity_lines": [ 16.482, 18.318364, 17.663971, 16.925251 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.6, "volume": 246222059, "typical_volume": 185295561.5, "trend": 15.937857, "fair_value": 10.886489, "relative_strength": -12.687965, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.633246, "energy": 40.589109, "activity_lines": [ 14.315333, 17.234364, 17.266036, 16.707855 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.14, "volume": 322839432, "typical_volume": 192026123.7, "trend": 15.995683, "fair_value": 10.925947, "relative_strength": -0.303265, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.855284, "energy": 37.321689, "activity_lines": [ 14.052667, 16.681091, 17.124572, 16.65638 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }