{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e2af2594-0db6-4c27-a492-f8c8b512715b", "symbol": "ROCK", "name": "Rockfire Resources plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.09, "architecture_energy": 30.266, "architecture_maturity": 51.182, "architecture_confidence": 87.061, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.8, "rotation_up": 19.92, "upward_expansion": 2.83, "deceleration": 55.78, "rotation_down": 49.14, "downward_expansion": 76.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.001253, 0.001269, 0.001323, 0.001411 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.00135, "trend_reference": 0.001547, "distance_from_trend": -0.127531, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.001821, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.25866, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -24.497671, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.4, "excess_performance": -0.451235, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.127531, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032917, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.25866, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055526, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.244977, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06922, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.4, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.105953, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 247955365, "relative_activity": 1.342234, "balance": 1.105953, "dry_up": 1.149037, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.225071, "annualized_volatility": 0.572142, "from_high_reference": -0.625, "from_low_reference": 0.35 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.001547, "fair_value_reference": 0.001821, "structural_low": 0.001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.047619, "positive_rate": 0.322581, "directional_follow_through": 0.580645, "median_excess_return": -0.038, "regime_survival": 0.806452, "best_return": 0.462963, "worst_return": -0.380392, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.185185, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.219591, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.527778, "worst_return": -0.47619, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.368421, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.443721, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.971429, "worst_return": -0.551282, "sufficient": true }, { 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.41093, "energy": 56.859708, "activity_lines": [ 0.001249, 0.001316, 0.00137, 0.00147 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0011, "volume": 105688095, "typical_volume": 187217913.2, "trend": 0.001551, "fair_value": 0.001842, "relative_strength": -37.493199, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.586879, "energy": 63.951444, "activity_lines": [ 0.001184, 0.001269, 0.001337, 0.00144 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0013, "volume": 296588433, "typical_volume": 187595556.35, "trend": 0.001547, "fair_value": 0.001831, "relative_strength": -27.123622, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.248395, "energy": 44.458689, "activity_lines": [ 0.001209, 0.001263, 0.001326, 0.001424 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.00135, "volume": 247955365, "typical_volume": 184733268.65, "trend": 0.001547, "fair_value": 0.001821, "relative_strength": -24.497671, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.089571, "energy": 30.26615, "activity_lines": [ 0.001253, 0.001269, 0.001323, 0.001411 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }