{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e2afa6ec-77dd-4703-bc06-d30fe17193d2", "symbol": "603161", "name": "Kehua Holdings Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 61.445, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -32.439, "architecture_energy": 13.737, "architecture_maturity": 19.361, "architecture_confidence": 54.276, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.03, "rotation_up": 21.68, "upward_expansion": 16.34, "deceleration": 45.01, "rotation_down": 31.56, "downward_expansion": 55.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.868, 13.839884, 13.936565, 14.19272 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 14.08, "trend_reference": 14.55802, "distance_from_trend": -0.032836, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.854847, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.1877, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.084491, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.084525, "excess_performance": -0.041322, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.032836, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005469, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.1877, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093642, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.000845, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018436, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.084525, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.031954, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19515071, "relative_activity": 1.362621, "balance": 1.031954, "dry_up": 1.771853, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.102219, "annualized_volatility": 0.3804, "from_high_reference": -0.17757, "from_low_reference": 0.171381 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.55802, "fair_value_reference": 11.854847, "structural_low": 12.02, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.038921, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.611111, "median_excess_return": 0.038601, "regime_survival": 0.277778, "best_return": 0.199597, "worst_return": -0.138462, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.092329, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": 0.102255, "regime_survival": 0.181818, "best_return": 0.225219, "worst_return": -0.264214, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.057316, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.05391, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.212592, "worst_return": -0.150034, 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"2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.114771, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.015447, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.056911, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.045079, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 10.588599, "volume": 29879782, "typical_volume": 19021328.5, "trend": 9.999069, "fair_value": 9.740046, "relative_strength": 7.100866, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural 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13.31, "volume": 15425548, "typical_volume": 12491198.65, "trend": 14.517354, "fair_value": 11.781012, "relative_strength": -0.975264, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.528006, "energy": 50.823114, "activity_lines": [ 13.443478, 13.689844, 13.971192, 14.283885 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.2, "volume": 37972633, "typical_volume": 13397915.2, "trend": 14.539354, "fair_value": 11.809054, "relative_strength": 4.120731, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.195198, "energy": 30.592693, "activity_lines": [ 13.626, 13.767522, 13.964856, 14.26341 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.91, "volume": 28590617, "typical_volume": 14011592.55, "trend": 14.546354, "fair_value": 11.830345, "relative_strength": 1.506882, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.424899, "energy": 26.542604, "activity_lines": [ 13.731333, 13.788618, 13.938948, 14.222807 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.08, "volume": 19515071, "typical_volume": 14321713.2, "trend": 14.55802, "fair_value": 11.854847, "relative_strength": -0.084491, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.439426, "energy": 13.73707, "activity_lines": [ 13.868, 13.839884, 13.936565, 14.19272 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }