{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e2b47bef-4e47-4d5a-b1b8-a7d99654827c", "symbol": "CAPR", "name": "Capricor Therapeutics Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -95.224, "architecture_energy": 98.004, "architecture_maturity": 26.0, "architecture_confidence": 75.775, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.65, "rotation_up": 8.02, "upward_expansion": 22.0, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 90.58, "downward_expansion": 100.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.356, 16.064545, 21.736143, 24.020667 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 4.09, "trend_reference": 25.692333, "distance_from_trend": -0.840809, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.308077, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.667698, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -81.876013, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.834547, "excess_performance": -1.022001, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.840809, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018419, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.667698, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -2.464426, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.81876, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.349988, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.834547, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.335137, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19894514, "relative_activity": 1.903202, "balance": 0.335137, "dry_up": 2.842471, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 1.022353, "annualized_volatility": 2.336026, "from_high_reference": -0.898687, "from_low_reference": 0.381757 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.692333, "fair_value_reference": 12.308077, "structural_low": 2.96, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.024136, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.388889, "median_excess_return": 0.050997, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 3.646429, "worst_return": -0.317546, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.214035, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.075161, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 3.699495, "worst_return": -0.24183, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.482769, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.525179, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 3.400564, "worst_return": -0.236814, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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28.012545, 29.260619, 28.728602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 23.21, "volume": 8551284, "typical_volume": 6145160.95, "trend": 27.928333, "fair_value": 12.023333, "relative_strength": 6.243535, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.366553, "energy": 46.093002, "activity_lines": [ 25.684, 26.932364, 28.686286, 28.41628 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 21.51, "volume": 7428254, "typical_volume": 6148880.6, "trend": 27.778, "fair_value": 12.1325, "relative_strength": -4.240062, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -48.761683, "energy": 55.704331, "activity_lines": [ 24.151333, 25.762364, 27.946429, 28.002194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 19.44, "volume": 6386952, "typical_volume": 6259979.15, "trend": 27.499, "fair_value": 12.227949, "relative_strength": -10.56868, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.179963, "energy": 80.026989, "activity_lines": [ 22.275333, 24.386909, 27.042762, 27.464258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.7, "volume": 10193357, "typical_volume": 6503084.3, "trend": 27.166, "fair_value": 12.325192, "relative_strength": -8.815559, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.165959, "energy": 82.506593, "activity_lines": [ 20.91, 23.257636, 26.204286, 26.961097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.85, "volume": 82376602, "typical_volume": 9964937.1, "trend": 26.350667, "fair_value": 12.320577, "relative_strength": -82.182459, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -97.941152, "energy": 97.880225, "activity_lines": [ 14.84, 19.411818, 23.895333, 25.456839 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.09, "volume": 19894514, "typical_volume": 10453179.8, "trend": 25.692333, "fair_value": 12.308077, "relative_strength": -81.876013, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -95.224381, "energy": 98.003828, "activity_lines": [ 10.356, 16.064545, 21.736143, 24.020667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }