{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e2ba2670-7775-41f7-9f7f-32d59cd4811a", "symbol": "DMART", "name": "Avenue Supermarts Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 73.233, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -30.836, "architecture_energy": 48.099, "architecture_maturity": 7.258, "architecture_confidence": 75.197, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.09, "rotation_up": 16.53, "upward_expansion": 24.29, "deceleration": 50.59, "rotation_down": 68.27, "downward_expansion": 56.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 3948.353337, 4013.30546, 4114.075259, 4114.022601 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 3900.0, "trend_reference": 4065.590015, "distance_from_trend": -0.04073, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4142.590061, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.05856, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.130513, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.002596, "excess_performance": 0.046306, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.04073, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012991, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.05856, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.129653, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.051305, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.146729, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.002596, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.339773, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1918378, "relative_activity": 0.779475, "balance": 0.339773, "dry_up": 1.304809, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050911, "annualized_volatility": 0.280226, "from_high_reference": -0.212042, "from_low_reference": 0.083333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4065.590015, "fair_value_reference": 4142.590061, "structural_low": 3630.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.013618, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.014799, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.015727, "worst_return": -0.058779, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.113624, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.057297, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.030192, "worst_return": -0.220086, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.069926, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.080785, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.097507, "worst_return": -0.118367, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.175582, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.091513, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.034631, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.041885, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.01275, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.127434, 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"energy": 38.499071, "activity_lines": [ 4028.553337, 4076.360014, 4166.078597, 4133.177011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3921.0, "volume": 4915967, "typical_volume": 2454398.35, "trend": 4062.300016, "fair_value": 4140.346792, "relative_strength": -4.025199, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.121693, "energy": 44.077195, "activity_lines": [ 3979.5, 4044.96001, 4141.283357, 4124.493569 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3900.0, "volume": 1918378, "typical_volume": 2461114.45, "trend": 4065.590015, "fair_value": 4142.590061, "relative_strength": -5.130513, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.836299, "energy": 48.098718, "activity_lines": [ 3948.353337, 4013.30546, 4114.075259, 4114.022601 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }