{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e2c819be-789c-4f2d-a8f0-8d1d359dd89c", "symbol": "BF-B", "name": "Brown-Forman Corporation", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 25.885, "architecture_energy": 31.328, "architecture_maturity": 38.965, "architecture_confidence": 45.365, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.97, "rotation_up": 46.19, "upward_expansion": 48.48, "deceleration": 33.02, "rotation_down": 31.88, "downward_expansion": 23.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.539333, 27.109167, 26.878545, 26.808292 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 28.52, "trend_reference": 26.853387, "distance_from_trend": 0.062063, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 37.553343, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.240547, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.543887, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.014077, "excess_performance": -0.139702, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.062063, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006498, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.240547, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.081531, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.065439, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055635, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.014077, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.970278, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9812695, "relative_activity": 0.525333, "balance": 0.970278, "dry_up": 0.652758, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06974, "annualized_volatility": 0.458329, "from_high_reference": -0.083457, "from_low_reference": 0.272372 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.853387, "fair_value_reference": 37.553343, "structural_low": 22.414831, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.027959, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.013975, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.089797, "worst_return": -0.188979, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.080787, "positive_rate": 0.090909, "directional_follow_through": 0.090909, "median_excess_return": -0.10666, "regime_survival": 0.090909, "best_return": 0.04385, "worst_return": -0.20086, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.12446, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.125, "median_excess_return": -0.203413, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.035307, 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"stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.086627, "energy": 13.306365, "activity_lines": [ 26.644, 26.521637, 26.580669, 26.669723 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 25.58, "volume": 12985565, "typical_volume": 22377534.2, "trend": 26.639061, "fair_value": 38.276641, "relative_strength": -14.027257, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.696316, "energy": 21.766534, "activity_lines": [ 26.241333, 26.355467, 26.497848, 26.596205 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.08, "volume": 8846787, "typical_volume": 20459757.2, "trend": 26.650892, "fair_value": 38.021926, "relative_strength": -11.308911, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.849449, "energy": 27.130978, "activity_lines": [ 26.100667, 26.314043, 26.475826, 26.560137 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.73, "volume": 17126452, "typical_volume": 19710485.0, "trend": 26.752693, "fair_value": 37.78932, "relative_strength": -3.039828, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.864906, "energy": 11.326069, "activity_lines": [ 26.880667, 26.755752, 26.700145, 26.694273 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.52, "volume": 9812695, "typical_volume": 18679009.1, "trend": 26.853387, "fair_value": 37.553343, "relative_strength": -6.543887, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.885198, "energy": 31.328347, "activity_lines": [ 27.539333, 27.109167, 26.878545, 26.808292 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }