{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e2c9146c-a4a4-452e-a786-2cc9ecdc6d5e", "symbol": "HAKI-A", "name": "HAKI Safety AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 57.448, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -1.686, "architecture_energy": 7.421, "architecture_maturity": 25.48, "architecture_confidence": 58.395, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.04, "rotation_up": 24.37, "upward_expansion": 17.56, "deceleration": 57.18, "rotation_down": 46.3, "downward_expansion": 40.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.159999, 23.243636, 23.354648, 23.251029 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 23.6, "trend_reference": 23.197196, "distance_from_trend": 0.017364, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.684104, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.003551, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.461463, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.084582, "excess_performance": 0.023088, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.017364, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008678, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.003551, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030692, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.084615, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04159, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.084582, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.74248, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 181, "relative_activity": 0.292336, "balance": 0.74248, "dry_up": 1.702738, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050196, "annualized_volatility": 0.359777, "from_high_reference": -0.073933, "from_low_reference": 0.209936 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.197196, "fair_value_reference": 23.684104, "structural_low": 19.505158, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.048951, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.063554, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.298246, "worst_return": -0.133333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.035088, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.000895, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.312402, "worst_return": -0.166667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.010167, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.072352, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.258835, "worst_return": -0.056485, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.045802, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.02073, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.16459, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.071429, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008696, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": 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516.55, "trend": 23.116614, "fair_value": 23.585461, "relative_strength": -6.561095, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.432177, "energy": 17.537738, "activity_lines": [ 23.559999, 23.578181, 23.418129, 23.274926 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 23.0, "volume": 1091, "typical_volume": 568.15, "trend": 23.13836, "fair_value": 23.606018, "relative_strength": -7.880409, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.979268, "energy": 9.82911, "activity_lines": [ 23.4, 23.469091, 23.396542, 23.267402 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.799999, "volume": 419, "typical_volume": 554.55, "trend": 23.153439, "fair_value": 23.629949, "relative_strength": -9.686755, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.418279, "energy": 8.74762, "activity_lines": [ 23.159999, 23.316363, 23.363068, 23.245572 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.799999, "volume": 2526, "typical_volume": 655.8, "trend": 23.161984, "fair_value": 23.655045, "relative_strength": -10.372892, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.316928, "energy": 11.752876, "activity_lines": [ 22.986666, 23.192727, 23.323707, 23.22277 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.6, "volume": 181, "typical_volume": 619.15, "trend": 23.197196, "fair_value": 23.684104, "relative_strength": -8.461463, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -1.686464, "energy": 7.421204, "activity_lines": [ 23.159999, 23.243636, 23.354648, 23.251029 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }