{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e2d2c5e4-0b18-4efd-b3b8-235cbeef7ec4", "symbol": "ALODC", "name": "Omer-Decugis & Cie SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 62.587, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.528, "architecture_energy": 40.466, "architecture_maturity": 13.972, "architecture_confidence": 73.459, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.6, "rotation_up": 14.67, "upward_expansion": 7.92, "deceleration": 47.24, "rotation_down": 64.35, "downward_expansion": 74.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.413333, 8.631273, 8.646288, 8.735518 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 8.22, "trend_reference": 8.866521, "distance_from_trend": -0.072917, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.697077, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.442845, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.690709, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.122419, "excess_performance": -0.17573, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.072917, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049422, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.442845, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.180724, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.066907, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.193379, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.122419, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.300935, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25889, "relative_activity": 1.480357, "balance": 0.300935, "dry_up": 1.827188, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065693, "annualized_volatility": 0.304619, "from_high_reference": -0.181495, "from_low_reference": 0.195111 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.866521, "fair_value_reference": 5.697077, "structural_low": 7.78, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.000261, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.040992, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.168224, "worst_return": -0.11236, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.080243, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.099057, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.397561, "worst_return": 0.009756, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.105614, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.189783, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.823397, "worst_return": 0.009662, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.031477, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.154507, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.432, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.103542, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.105, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", 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"activity_lines": [ 8.728, 8.602545, 8.698075, 8.763702 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 9.8, "volume": 16653, "typical_volume": 17633.75, "trend": 8.758222, "fair_value": 5.598542, "relative_strength": 16.484995, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.158104, "energy": 48.936419, "activity_lines": [ 9.129333, 8.822909, 8.788391, 8.836481 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.1, "volume": 18301, "typical_volume": 15860.6, "trend": 8.817918, "fair_value": 5.628082, "relative_strength": 7.715923, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 28.40677, "energy": 45.113699, "activity_lines": [ 9.190667, 8.898909, 8.811096, 8.858531 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.5, "volume": 39804, "typical_volume": 15840.35, "trend": 8.855001, "fair_value": 5.653592, "relative_strength": -0.006432, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 1.480409, "energy": 15.545537, "activity_lines": [ 8.992, 8.858545, 8.779235, 8.838021 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.9, "volume": 43824, "typical_volume": 17247.8, "trend": 8.853795, "fair_value": 5.675073, "relative_strength": -8.350846, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.475224, "energy": 20.667662, "activity_lines": [ 8.62, 8.711636, 8.693891, 8.776408 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.22, "volume": 25889, "typical_volume": 17488.35, "trend": 8.866521, "fair_value": 5.697077, "relative_strength": -6.690709, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.528213, "energy": 40.466033, "activity_lines": [ 8.413333, 8.631273, 8.646288, 8.735518 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }