{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e2d2ea48-ff83-429b-957c-35102e0cddfb", "symbol": "BSX", "name": "Amundi EURO STOXX 50 Daily (-1x) Inverse UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -81.832, "architecture_energy": 67.582, "architecture_maturity": 37.387, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.73, "rotation_up": 25.1, "upward_expansion": 12.09, "deceleration": 46.83, "rotation_down": 57.2, "downward_expansion": 83.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.587667, 6.630982, 6.779552, 6.913609 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 6.431, "trend_reference": 7.042567, "distance_from_trend": -0.086839, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.260955, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.221519, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.732742, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.098921, "excess_performance": -0.269813, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.086839, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0353, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.221519, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060691, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.247327, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069483, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.098921, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.402484, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 206219, "relative_activity": 1.021032, "balance": 0.402484, "dry_up": 1.020086, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025896, "annualized_volatility": 0.171521, "from_high_reference": -0.19813, "from_low_reference": 0.004216 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.042567, "fair_value_reference": 8.260955, "structural_low": 6.404, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": -0.001974, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.008658, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.050031, "worst_return": -0.073952, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.015473, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.0631, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.081571, "worst_return": -0.085615, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.075969, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.181878, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.14256, "worst_return": -0.119839, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"trend": 7.113733, "fair_value": 8.315808, "relative_strength": -20.413755, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.837249, "energy": 71.619636, "activity_lines": [ 6.680867, 6.737255, 6.915729, 7.013194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.685, "volume": 186147, "typical_volume": 206632.25, "trend": 7.089033, "fair_value": 8.29959, "relative_strength": -20.306407, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.998085, "energy": 60.986991, "activity_lines": [ 6.684867, 6.713345, 6.877133, 6.985533 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.609, "volume": 208522, "typical_volume": 204923.4, "trend": 7.0658, "fair_value": 8.280949, "relative_strength": -21.038739, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.393041, "energy": 53.454867, "activity_lines": [ 6.661533, 6.685182, 6.834748, 6.954563 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.431, "volume": 206219, "typical_volume": 201971.15, "trend": 7.042567, "fair_value": 8.260955, "relative_strength": -24.732742, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.832306, "energy": 67.581945, "activity_lines": [ 6.587667, 6.630982, 6.779552, 6.913609 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }