{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e2dc2fc7-cece-43f0-a11a-e58a85bac501", "symbol": "NBI", "name": "NBI Bearings Europe, S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 0.16, "architecture_energy": 4.662, "architecture_maturity": 20.318, "architecture_confidence": 41.18, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 69.06, "rotation_up": 24.09, "upward_expansion": 31.76, "deceleration": 65.62, "rotation_down": 38.18, "downward_expansion": 22.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.096, 3.117455, 3.079143, 3.075226 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 3.06, "trend_reference": 3.082667, "distance_from_trend": -0.007353, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.809487, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.196742, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.251142, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.012903, "excess_performance": -0.137334, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.007353, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02505, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.196742, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054522, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.142511, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011927, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.012903, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.314435, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 231, "relative_activity": 0.043828, "balance": 0.314435, "dry_up": 0.198459, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04726, "annualized_volatility": 0.23647, "from_high_reference": -0.110465, "from_low_reference": 0.159091 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.082667, "fair_value_reference": 3.809487, "structural_low": 2.8, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.006711, "positive_rate": 0.421053, "directional_follow_through": 0.421053, "median_excess_return": -0.014486, "regime_survival": 0.473684, "best_return": 0.066667, "worst_return": -0.118644, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.028689, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.049411, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.053691, "worst_return": -0.127273, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.104551, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.130448, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.031818, "worst_return": -0.182222, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.135593, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.222718, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": -0.068182, "worst_return": -0.137255, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.008696, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.062222, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.286364, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.032258, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.031847, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": 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"regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.109009, "energy": 53.041226, "activity_lines": [ 3.16, 3.113818, 3.061905, 3.068301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.14, "volume": 791, "typical_volume": 5640.45, "trend": 3.068, "fair_value": 3.841282, "relative_strength": -9.802023, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.383762, "energy": 42.315921, "activity_lines": [ 3.165333, 3.127636, 3.068857, 3.073462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.14, "volume": 110, "typical_volume": 5498.8, "trend": 3.079333, "fair_value": 3.830897, "relative_strength": -10.809184, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.814558, "energy": 25.245075, "activity_lines": [ 3.161333, 3.138182, 3.077048, 3.078108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.06, "volume": 3052, "typical_volume": 5351.9, "trend": 3.085333, "fair_value": 3.820128, "relative_strength": -13.21656, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 6.665712, "energy": 9.998772, "activity_lines": [ 3.128, 3.129455, 3.077905, 3.07686 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.06, "volume": 231, "typical_volume": 5270.6, "trend": 3.082667, "fair_value": 3.809487, "relative_strength": -14.251142, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 0.15956, "energy": 4.66214, "activity_lines": [ 3.096, 3.117455, 3.079143, 3.075226 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }