{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e2e356c1-5fab-4760-a1c9-3f9526b514a5", "symbol": "JGH", "name": "Jade Gas Holdings Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 31.412, "architecture_energy": 27.592, "architecture_maturity": 75.84, "architecture_confidence": 94.459, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.93, "rotation_up": 24.93, "upward_expansion": 59.79, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 35.72, "downward_expansion": 23.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.082, 0.090091, 0.083786, 0.072312 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.071, "trend_reference": 0.057467, "distance_from_trend": 0.235499, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.043099, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.647356, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 38.421108, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 1.958333, "excess_performance": 1.894628, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.235499, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.518943, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.647356, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.208288, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.384211, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.253134, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.958333, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.3091, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 73126553, "relative_activity": 2.302726, "balance": 1.3091, "dry_up": 1.881832, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.223185, "annualized_volatility": 0.929293, "from_high_reference": -0.408333, "from_low_reference": 2.227273 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.057467, "fair_value_reference": 0.043099, "structural_low": 0.022, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.09965, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.114088, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.179104, "worst_return": -0.208333, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.155855, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.181956, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.119403, "worst_return": -0.192308, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.229478, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.210651, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.208955, "worst_return": -0.25, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.259328, 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"relative_strength": 125.538209, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.280838, "energy": 68.155971, "activity_lines": [ 0.105933, 0.0988, 0.081352, 0.068022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.076, "volume": 88910661, "typical_volume": 25091716.45, "trend": 0.0544, "fair_value": 0.04267, "relative_strength": 60.994966, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.908616, "energy": 59.153331, "activity_lines": [ 0.096333, 0.096036, 0.082357, 0.069505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.083, "volume": 65022582, "typical_volume": 28275751.05, "trend": 0.0561, "fair_value": 0.04292, "relative_strength": 68.816952, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.68035, "energy": 37.7263, "activity_lines": [ 0.0906, 0.094273, 0.083786, 0.071351 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.071, "volume": 73126553, "typical_volume": 31756511.8, "trend": 0.057467, "fair_value": 0.043099, "relative_strength": 38.421108, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.411914, "energy": 27.592076, "activity_lines": [ 0.082, 0.090091, 0.083786, 0.072312 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }