{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e2e557d4-bacf-4b4e-80f3-6b7a558977c8", "symbol": "ALCBX", "name": "Cibox Inter@ctive", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 90.187, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -29.575, "architecture_energy": 13.612, "architecture_maturity": 21.684, "architecture_confidence": 62.975, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.45, "rotation_up": 25.73, "upward_expansion": 18.86, "deceleration": 42.35, "rotation_down": 27.27, "downward_expansion": 52.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.011493, 0.011378, 0.011455, 0.011654 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.0115, "trend_reference": 0.012163, "distance_from_trend": -0.054535, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.02151, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.465371, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.980836, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.233333, "excess_performance": -0.286645, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.054535, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042006, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.465371, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014082, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.199808, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074907, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.233333, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.314499, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1690313, "relative_activity": 0.421878, "balance": 0.314499, "dry_up": 2.177223, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.085619, "annualized_volatility": 0.394231, "from_high_reference": -0.452381, "from_low_reference": 0.127451 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.012163, "fair_value_reference": 0.02151, "structural_low": 0.0102, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.106515, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.023446, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.256774, "worst_return": -0.358618, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.237159, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.186592, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.167832, "worst_return": -0.306485, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.273161, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.262276, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.202797, "worst_return": -0.343524, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.587965, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.628613, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.587965, "worst_return": -0.587965, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2021-07-09", "end": "2022-01-28", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.411322, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2022-02-04", "end": "2022-03-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.145377, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-03-11", "end": "2022-03-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.105108, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2022-04-01", "end": "2022-04-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.358618, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-05-06", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.85233, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015789, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.676056, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.251163, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.155689, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-24", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.775909, "energy": 30.219222, "activity_lines": [ 0.01132, 0.011322, 0.011534, 0.011895 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.0114, "volume": 28630518, "typical_volume": 4184945.55, "trend": 0.012387, "fair_value": 0.021763, "relative_strength": -20.781441, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.491245, "energy": 20.288137, "activity_lines": [ 0.011393, 0.011322, 0.011507, 0.011827 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0114, "volume": 3537491, "typical_volume": 4202489.15, "trend": 0.012327, "fair_value": 0.021676, "relative_strength": -19.898182, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.78797, "energy": 15.644852, "activity_lines": [ 0.011447, 0.011331, 0.011485, 0.011763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0114, "volume": 1035034, "typical_volume": 4085079.7, "trend": 0.012263, "fair_value": 0.02159, "relative_strength": -19.883078, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.538994, "energy": 17.792997, "activity_lines": [ 0.011467, 0.011344, 0.011465, 0.011704 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0115, "volume": 1690313, "typical_volume": 4006635.45, "trend": 0.012163, "fair_value": 0.02151, "relative_strength": -19.980836, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.574558, "energy": 13.611959, "activity_lines": [ 0.011493, 0.011378, 0.011455, 0.011654 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }