{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "e2ed1ea1-66d8-47d8-b717-a1f995d3baf3",
    "symbol": "EEMK",
    "name": "BNP Paribas Easy MSCI Emerging Min TE UCITS ETF EUR Cap",
    "exchange": "PAR",
    "country": "FR",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FCHI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 26.257,
    "architecture_energy": 23.645,
    "architecture_maturity": 65.626,
    "architecture_confidence": 90.632,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 54.42,
        "rotation_up": 18.5,
        "upward_expansion": 52.41,
        "deceleration": 93.98,
        "rotation_down": 34.82,
        "downward_expansion": 18.41
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        16.53038,
        16.778936,
        16.711426,
        16.318864
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.0
    },
    "latest_close": 16.7265,
    "trend_reference": 15.812093,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.05783,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 12.166249,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.374828,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 6.354076,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.131545,
    "excess_performance": 0.078234,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.05783,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.07557,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.374828,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.074369,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.063541,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.167831,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.131545,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.192906,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 301813,
      "relative_activity": 1.015415,
      "balance": 1.192906,
      "dry_up": 0.854184,
      "accumulation_observations": 4,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.043981,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.229228,
      "from_high_reference": -0.068546,
      "from_low_reference": 0.369823
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 15.812093,
      "fair_value_reference": 12.166249,
      "structural_low": 13.7755,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.009848,
        "positive_rate": 0.571429,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.571429,
        "median_excess_return": 0.021071,
        "regime_survival": 0.142857,
        "best_return": 0.135095,
        "worst_return": -0.021908,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.057933,
        "positive_rate": 0.8,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.8,
        "median_excess_return": 0.079558,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.238524,
        "worst_return": -0.006754,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.11469,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.017944,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.328084,
        "worst_return": -0.00825,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.083881,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.011451,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.139169,
        "worst_return": 0.028592,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-02-23",
        "end": "2024-08-02",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.030882,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-08-09",
        "end": "2024-09-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.096684,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-10-04",
        "end": "2024-11-15",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.045197,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-11-22",
        "end": "2024-12-13",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.010495,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-12-20",
        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.007181,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.024129,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-18",
        "end": "2025-05-23",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.101557,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-05-30",
        "end": "2025-07-18",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.063727,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-07-25",
        "end": "2025-12-12",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.095366,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-12-26",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.004558,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "return": 0.01846,
        "active": false
      },
      {
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        "return": 0.132446,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.016456,
        "active": true
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      },
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        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 336973.5,
        "trend": 15.551633,
        "fair_value": 12.042116,
        "relative_strength": 8.891618,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 45.292338,
        "energy": 35.872424,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 16.4557,
        "volume": 219469,
        "typical_volume": 312662.7,
        "trend": 15.649823,
        "fair_value": 12.081371,
        "relative_strength": 9.699273,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 37.203349,
        "energy": 22.556329,
        "activity_lines": [
          16.704874,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 16.3486,
        "volume": 226022,
        "typical_volume": 301550.45,
        "trend": 15.731443,
        "fair_value": 12.121785,
        "relative_strength": 6.850728,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 28.733238,
        "energy": 23.631095,
        "activity_lines": [
          16.52294,
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          16.254667
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 16.7265,
        "volume": 301813,
        "typical_volume": 297231.05,
        "trend": 15.812093,
        "fair_value": 12.166249,
        "relative_strength": 6.354076,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 26.257137,
        "energy": 23.644848,
        "activity_lines": [
          16.53038,
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        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}