{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e2ed9345-ca91-4446-8330-bf7807311689", "symbol": "ZKH", "name": "ZKH Group Limited", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -17.912, "architecture_energy": 22.392, "architecture_maturity": 85.713, "architecture_confidence": 67.437, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.74, "rotation_up": 45.51, "upward_expansion": 28.77, "deceleration": 38.42, "rotation_down": 19.33, "downward_expansion": 49.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.902, 2.762909, 2.775905, 2.871088 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2.85, "trend_reference": 3.0284, "distance_from_trend": -0.058909, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.482043, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.480121, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.018857, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.197183, "excess_performance": -0.322808, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.058909, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059328, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.480121, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000378, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.170189, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021098, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.197183, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.138384, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 651651, "relative_activity": 0.840123, "balance": 0.138384, "dry_up": 0.689539, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.117136, "annualized_volatility": 0.548719, "from_high_reference": -0.269231, "from_low_reference": 0.484375 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.0284, "fair_value_reference": 5.482043, "structural_low": 1.92, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.013841, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.022762, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.116041, "worst_return": -0.037801, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.012586, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.061588, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.110345, "worst_return": -0.085174, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.015773, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.135985, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.015773, "worst_return": 0.015773, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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2.402, 2.572364, 2.771886, 2.933884 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.77, "volume": 234443, "typical_volume": 709198.85, "trend": 3.106733, "fair_value": 5.557733, "relative_strength": -18.745861, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.420316, "energy": 69.506787, "activity_lines": [ 2.484, 2.584545, 2.754686, 2.911191 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.99, "volume": 220197, "typical_volume": 717997.05, "trend": 3.099067, "fair_value": 5.538853, "relative_strength": -10.546473, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.239111, "energy": 33.764265, "activity_lines": [ 2.643333, 2.642182, 2.762629, 2.90366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.95, "volume": 537410, "typical_volume": 735243.85, "trend": 3.075733, "fair_value": 5.519956, "relative_strength": -10.905386, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.962772, "energy": 16.745173, "activity_lines": [ 2.776667, 2.692727, 2.769667, 2.894043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.92, "volume": 730135, "typical_volume": 762473.65, "trend": 3.050067, "fair_value": 5.501116, "relative_strength": -12.403053, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.114838, "energy": 23.423217, "activity_lines": [ 2.872, 2.737091, 2.775048, 2.883996 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.85, "volume": 651651, "typical_volume": 775661.05, "trend": 3.0284, "fair_value": 5.482043, "relative_strength": -17.018857, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.911642, "energy": 22.392165, "activity_lines": [ 2.902, 2.762909, 2.775905, 2.871088 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }