{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e2ef376f-488f-4293-a1e9-82821aec9d68", "symbol": "CMBT", "name": "CMB.TECH NV", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.854, "architecture_energy": 60.481, "architecture_maturity": 22.21, "architecture_confidence": 93.314, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.57, "rotation_up": 64.79, "upward_expansion": 87.27, "deceleration": 46.3, "rotation_down": 17.36, "downward_expansion": 11.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.92, 15.466182, 14.962949, 14.346718 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 16.29, "trend_reference": 13.545341, "distance_from_trend": 0.202628, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.108469, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.345339, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 25.755699, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.378524, "excess_performance": 0.252899, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.202628, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.162604, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.345339, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.142492, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.257557, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008231, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.378524, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.662834, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5131358, "relative_activity": 0.77195, "balance": 1.662834, "dry_up": 0.587732, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082025, "annualized_volatility": 0.42372, "from_high_reference": -0.041595, "from_low_reference": 1.23211 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.545341, "fair_value_reference": 12.108469, "structural_low": 11.23893, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.002631, "positive_rate": 0.53125, "directional_follow_through": 0.53125, "median_excess_return": -0.019847, "regime_survival": 0.71875, "best_return": 0.281665, "worst_return": -0.225076, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.04165, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.023174, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.431112, "worst_return": -0.277197, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.06936, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.052456, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.466871, "worst_return": -0.38783, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014774, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.187075, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.114136, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.145907, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.098361, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": 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14.19466, 13.633153 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.96, "volume": 4180899, "typical_volume": 7499048.7, "trend": 12.901484, "fair_value": 12.040861, "relative_strength": 23.388176, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.136021, "energy": 30.429701, "activity_lines": [ 14.892, 14.894942, 14.325017, 13.778661 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.74, "volume": 3141069, "typical_volume": 7092835.2, "trend": 13.12119, "fair_value": 12.066283, "relative_strength": 29.458533, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.678168, "energy": 43.215326, "activity_lines": [ 15.231333, 15.043638, 14.525252, 13.961791 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.16, "volume": 3173933, "typical_volume": 6794385.35, "trend": 13.362442, "fair_value": 12.088227, "relative_strength": 30.263921, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.231678, "energy": 53.277723, "activity_lines": [ 15.622667, 15.243069, 14.749514, 14.157843 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.29, "volume": 5131358, "typical_volume": 6647267.1, "trend": 13.545341, "fair_value": 12.108469, "relative_strength": 25.755699, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.854168, "energy": 60.480837, "activity_lines": [ 15.92, 15.466182, 14.962949, 14.346718 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }