{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e2f01d56-ea6f-4865-833f-657186e74df1", "symbol": "BE", "name": "Bloom Energy Corporation", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -0.397, "architecture_energy": 23.012, "architecture_maturity": 45.716, "architecture_confidence": 73.428, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.78, "rotation_up": 14.25, "upward_expansion": 42.68, "deceleration": 81.2, "rotation_down": 46.57, "downward_expansion": 36.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 3613.997363, 3977.249822, 4248.141037, 3997.290896 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3740.0, "trend_reference": 3603.486995, "distance_from_trend": 0.037884, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1125.419614, "distance_from_fair_value": 2.323205, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 33.249838, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.509867, "excess_performance": 0.564533, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.037884, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.269661, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 2.323205, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -2.51077, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.332498, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.055037, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.509867, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.033181, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1807, "relative_activity": 0.3699, "balance": 1.033181, "dry_up": 1.598944, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.221376, "annualized_volatility": 0.861831, "from_high_reference": -0.348584, "from_low_reference": 4.110476 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3603.486995, "fair_value_reference": 1125.419614, "structural_low": 2115.01001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.013971, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.057884, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.237355, "worst_return": -0.24965, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.042403, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.008302, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.378879, "worst_return": -0.294073, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 1.016697, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.940594, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.29848, "worst_return": 0.734914, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 4.458707, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 4.129377, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 4.458707, "worst_return": 4.458707, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.108909, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.030172, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.074718, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.100561, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.554208, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 1.630211, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.337183, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.771723, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.209804, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 290.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, 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"typical_volume": 5066.05, "trend": 3497.689657, "fair_value": 1081.88705, "relative_strength": 21.374946, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -7.619747, "energy": 21.527164, "activity_lines": [ 3798.480013, 4257.229794, 4317.435885, 3977.088331 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3631.080078, "volume": 21005, "typical_volume": 5453.9, "trend": 3560.250659, "fair_value": 1103.30423, "relative_strength": 31.991768, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.0533, "energy": 22.755216, "activity_lines": [ 3658.645378, 4092.475089, 4279.765512, 3985.694164 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3740.0, "volume": 1807, "typical_volume": 4885.1, "trend": 3603.486995, "fair_value": 1125.419614, "relative_strength": 33.249838, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.397192, "energy": 23.011663, "activity_lines": [ 3613.997363, 3977.249822, 4248.141037, 3997.290896 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }