{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e2f0fc7d-07f8-432a-be39-120a5ab6ae49", "symbol": "VPL", "name": "Vanguard FTSE Pacific Index Fund ETF Shares", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 89.628, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 22.238, "architecture_energy": 23.175, "architecture_maturity": 64.068, "architecture_confidence": 86.43, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.76, "rotation_up": 20.15, "upward_expansion": 54.23, "deceleration": 91.13, "rotation_down": 41.64, "downward_expansion": 22.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 1920.051335, 1941.707637, 1941.314335, 1909.781484 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1935.0, "trend_reference": 1863.544666, "distance_from_trend": 0.038344, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1469.953562, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.316368, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 8.078641, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.110792, "excess_performance": 0.165459, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.038344, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062667, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.316368, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07352, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.080786, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004304, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.110792, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.08197, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 231, "relative_activity": 0.262843, "balance": 0.08197, "dry_up": 2.892985, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031112, "annualized_volatility": 0.220624, "from_high_reference": -0.072387, "from_low_reference": 0.249883 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1863.544666, "fair_value_reference": 1469.953562, "structural_low": 1713.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.012118, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.017549, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.082535, "worst_return": -0.011715, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.078544, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.064067, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.105399, "worst_return": 0.014053, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.119332, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.087881, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.230937, "worst_return": -0.012727, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.08863, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.120923, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.121979, "worst_return": 0.055281, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.078571, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002839, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.005348, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.000273, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.099051, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007582, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.097907, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.000203, "active": false }, { 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62.641165, "energy": 54.987958, "activity_lines": [ 1988.484001, 1984.574365, 1934.879191, 1891.828494 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1889.5, "volume": 211, "typical_volume": 449.25, "trend": 1836.511332, "fair_value": 1455.54731, "relative_strength": 6.540856, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.865134, "energy": 24.489949, "activity_lines": [ 1952.901335, 1968.81982, 1935.047858, 1895.843892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1920.0, "volume": 147, "typical_volume": 426.85, "trend": 1846.377999, "fair_value": 1460.321096, "relative_strength": 8.465239, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.232107, "energy": 25.691725, "activity_lines": [ 1933.518669, 1959.74982, 1938.037953, 1901.230258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1899.0, "volume": 9581, "typical_volume": 875.55, "trend": 1855.077999, "fair_value": 1465.012991, "relative_strength": 6.242146, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.03104, "energy": 21.777662, "activity_lines": [ 1918.202669, 1947.192365, 1938.313763, 1904.625226 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1935.0, "volume": 231, "typical_volume": 878.85, "trend": 1863.544666, "fair_value": 1469.953562, "relative_strength": 8.078641, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.238084, "energy": 23.175477, "activity_lines": [ 1920.051335, 1941.707637, 1941.314335, 1909.781484 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }