{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e2f13140-5ce3-47b5-830b-64d557a858cc", "symbol": "600653", "name": "Liaoning Shenhua Holdings Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.457, "architecture_energy": 24.313, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 83.603, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.83, "rotation_up": 27.03, "upward_expansion": 15.5, "deceleration": 46.91, "rotation_down": 29.51, "downward_expansion": 63.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.63, 1.608545, 1.647048, 1.693785 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.66, "trend_reference": 1.763667, "distance_from_trend": -0.058779, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.826731, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.091273, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.359289, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.13089, "excess_performance": -0.087686, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.058779, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069796, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.091273, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089395, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.113593, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025669, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.13089, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.548264, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 78037388, "relative_activity": 0.977248, "balance": 0.548264, "dry_up": 1.178849, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05607, "annualized_volatility": 0.252004, "from_high_reference": -0.346457, "from_low_reference": 0.099338 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.763667, "fair_value_reference": 1.826731, "structural_low": 1.51, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.007614, "positive_rate": 0.464286, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.024182, "regime_survival": 0.892857, "best_return": 0.111111, "worst_return": -0.156627, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.036649, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.051706, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.837037, "worst_return": -0.253886, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.000733, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.106965, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.511111, "worst_return": -0.300518, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"relative_strength": -17.427109, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.504166, "energy": 81.725647, "activity_lines": [ 1.570667, 1.616364, 1.681905, 1.736452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.6, "volume": 103334685, "typical_volume": 87462602.8, "trend": 1.794, "fair_value": 1.831667, "relative_strength": -11.841653, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.501969, "energy": 67.698598, "activity_lines": [ 1.577333, 1.605273, 1.668571, 1.723226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.57, "volume": 100948838, "typical_volume": 84353235.0, "trend": 1.780667, "fair_value": 1.829744, "relative_strength": -14.179129, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.741806, "energy": 49.242899, "activity_lines": [ 1.578, 1.593091, 1.65419, 1.708774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.66, "volume": 94223153, "typical_volume": 83451832.75, "trend": 1.771667, "fair_value": 1.828333, "relative_strength": -9.268737, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.370977, "energy": 33.21281, "activity_lines": [ 1.608667, 1.600364, 1.65, 1.700989 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.66, "volume": 78037388, "typical_volume": 79854207.85, "trend": 1.763667, "fair_value": 1.826731, "relative_strength": -11.359289, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.457327, "energy": 24.313014, "activity_lines": [ 1.63, 1.608545, 1.647048, 1.693785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }